The car giant expects 23 million to 24 million car sales in China, compared with 24 million last year.
“At best we’re saying flat, probably down,” Ford’s chief financial officer Bob Shanks told the BBC.
If sales do fall, it would be the first time since 1990 that there has been a drop, he added.
Despite the overall picture, Ford itself expects to do “quite well” in China due to four new car models and a new factory, Mr Shanks said.
He said falls in commercial vehicle sales were driving the overall decline in industry sales in China.
“That’s usually closely tied to consumer confidence, investment in business and so forth.
“So we think this is just a side effect of the government’s move to transition the economy from one that’s more export oriented and investment focused to one that’s more consumer oriented,” he added.