Iran Oil Boost on Hold to 2016 as Nuclear Deal Implemented

Global oil markets won’t feel the real impact of Iran’s historic deal with world powers until 2016 as sanctions remain in place while nuclear inspectors go to work, said banks including Citigroup Inc., Goldman Sachs Group Inc. and Commerzbank AG.

OPEC’s fourth-largest member won’t achieve a crude-export boost of more than 500,000 barrels a day, or about 50 percent, until next year as Iran’s compliance with curbs on its nuclear program is verified, the banks say. The nation will probably choose to gradually increase exports once sanctions are lifted, rather than risk lower prices by rapidly pushing crude into an oversupplied market, according to the International Energy Agency.

It will be a long and winding road before Iranian oil returns to the market.

The agreement between Iran and six world powers will eventually lift restrictions that have halved its crude exports, provided the Persian Gulf nation removes nuclear centrifuges and cuts uranium stockpiles. Sanctions will remain in place at least until international monitors report on the country’s compliance in December.


This article is for general information purposes only. It is not investment advice or a solution to buy or sell securities. Opinions are the authors; not necessarily that of OANDA Corporation or any of its affiliates, subsidiaries, officers or directors. Leveraged trading is high risk and not suitable for all. You could lose all of your deposited funds.

Craig Erlam

Craig Erlam

Senior Market Analyst, UK & EMEA at OANDA
Based in London, Craig Erlam joined OANDA in 2015 as a market analyst. With many years of experience as a financial market analyst and trader, he focuses on both fundamental and technical analysis while producing macroeconomic commentary. His views have been published in the Financial Times, Reuters, The Telegraph and the International Business Times, and he also appears as a regular guest commentator on the BBC, Bloomberg TV, FOX Business and SKY News. Craig holds a full membership to the Society of Technical Analysts and is recognised as a Certified Financial Technician by the International Federation of Technical Analysts.
Craig Erlam
Craig Erlam

Latest posts by Craig Erlam (see all)