When the Fed last met, it did not know about the failed Greek referendum or even the Chinese stock market meltdown, but traders nonetheless will be combing the minutes of that June meeting for any inkling of how it might react to those international developments.
Greece-related developments should continue to dominate market focus, but the minutes of that FOMC meeting Wednesday should get the market’s attention when released at 2 p.m. ET. According to Bespoke, since 2013, the S&P 500 has traded lower eight of 10 times after the release of the minutes, but it also mostly rebounded the next day, reversing those losses.
“They can talk a little bit about keeping an eye on the international situation, but they can’t rewrite history. They can’t talk about the Greece referendum because it didn’t happen yet,” said John Briggs, head of strategy at RBS. “I look ahead to (Fed Chair Janet) Yellen’s speech on Friday. You wonder how hawkish she could be. You don’t want to kick the market when its down.”