AUD/USD – Runs Into Resistance at 0.7850 Again

AUD/USD – Friday 19 June 2015

The Australian dollar is presently consolidating in a narrow range right around 0.7800 after easing away from the key resistance level at 0.7850.  In the last 24 hours the AUD/USD surged higher from below 0.77 up to a three week high however it ran straight into resistance at the key 0.7850 level.  Throughout most of this week the Australian dollar has traded quite steady around the 0.7750 level whilst receiving solid support from 0.77 before its recent surge higher.  To finish out last week the Australian dollar eased lower from resistance below the key 0.7850 level however it met reasonable support at 0.77 where it is presently trading above. To start this new week it has taken advantage of the support at 0.77 and presently remains steady around 0.7750. Over the last few weeks the resistance level at 0.7850 has played a major role and continues to place selling pressure down on the AUD/USD. Throughout this same period it has been enjoying rock solid support from the long term support level at 0.76 which has allowed it to rebound strongly back up to above 0.78 on more than one occasion.

Throughout the second half of May the Australian dollar fall sharply from a four month high above 0.8150 down to the key support level at 0.76. This level has been a significant level for a couple of months and has propped the Australian dollar up on multiple occasions. This recent price action has been a significant reversal as it wasn’t so long ago, the AUD/USD was in a solid medium term up trend having broken through the key 0.7850 level and achieved the four month high above 0.8150. For most of this year the Australian dollar has traded within a wide trading range between the support at 0.76 and resistance around 0.7850.

Earlier this year in February that range was tighter with the support level higher at 0.77. Throughout this period it experienced reasonable swings back and forth between the two key levels with very few excursions beyond the levels. The key level presently remains 0.76 and it will be interesting to see how well the support at this level can hold up and stop the strong down trend the AUD/USD has experienced over the last few weeks. The 4 hour chart below shows how steady the recent decline has been but equally how significant the 0.76 level in being able to temporarily halt the decline.

(Daily chart / 4 hourly chart below)

AUD/USD June 19 at 00:05 GMT   0.7801   H: 0.7848   L: 0.7710

AUD/USD Technical

During the early hours of the Asian trading session on Friday, the Australian dollar is consolidating in a narrow range right around 0.7800 after easing away from the key resistance level at 0.7850.  Current range: trading right around 0.7800.

Further levels in both directions:

• Below: 0.7700 and 0.7600.

• Above: 0.7850 and 0.8150.

OANDA’s Open Position Ratios

(Shows the ratio of long vs. short positions held for AUD/USD among all OANDA clients. The left percentage (blue) shows long positions; the right percentage (orange) shows short positions.)

The long position ratio for AUD/USD has edged higher towards 60% as the AUD/USD has surged higher to resistance at 0.7850.  The trader sentiment is in favour of long positions.

Economic Releases

• 03:00 JP BoJ Policy Statement and Governor Kuroda Press Conference
• 04:30 JP All Industry activity index (Apr)
• 05:00 JP Leading indicator (Final) (Apr)
• 07:00 EU EU Finance Ministers Hold Meeting in Brussels
• 08:00 EU Current Account (sa) (Apr)
• 08:30 UK Public Borrowing (PSNB ex banks) (May)
• 10:00 UK CBI Industrial Trends (19th-23rd) (Jun)
• 12:30 CA CPI (May)
• 12:30 CA Retail Sales (Apr)
• JP BoJ MPC – Overnight Rate

* All release times are GMT

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