AUD/USD – Continues to Remain Above Support at 0.77

AUD/USD – Tuesday 16 June 2015

To finish out last week the Australian dollar eased lower from resistance below the key 0.7850 level however it met reasonable support at 0.77 where it is presently trading above.  To start this new week it has taken advantage of the support at 0.77 and presently remains steady around 0.7750.  Over the last few weeks the resistance level at 0.7850 has played a major role and continues to place selling pressure down on the AUD/USD. Throughout this same period it has been enjoying rock solid support from the long term support level at 0.76 which has allowed it to rebound strongly back up to above 0.78 on more than one occasion. Throughout the second half of May the Australian dollar fall sharply from a four month high above 0.8150 down to the key support level at 0.76. This level has been a significant level for a couple of months and has propped the Australian dollar up on multiple occasions.

This recent price action has been a significant reversal as it wasn’t so long ago, the AUD/USD was in a solid medium term up trend having broken through the key 0.7850 level and achieved the four month high above 0.8150. For most of this year the Australian dollar has traded within a wide trading range between the support at 0.76 and resistance around 0.7850. Earlier this year in February that range was tighter with the support level higher at 0.77. Throughout this period it experienced reasonable swings back and forth between the two key levels with very few excursions beyond the levels.

The key level presently remains 0.76 and it will be interesting to see how well the support at this level can hold up and stop the strong down trend the AUD/USD has experienced over the last few weeks. The 4 hour chart below shows how steady the recent decline has been but equally how significant the 0.76 level in being able to temporarily halt the decline.

(Daily chart / 4 hourly chart below)

AUD/USD June 16 at 00:20 GMT   0.7760   H: 0.7766   L: 0.7757

AUD/USD Technical

During the early hours of the Asian trading session on Tuesday, the Australian dollar remains very steady around 0.7750 after bouncing off support at 0.77 again.  Current range: trading right around 0.7750.

Further levels in both directions:

• Below: 0.7700 and 0.7600.

• Above: 0.7850 and 0.8150.

OANDA’s Open Position Ratios

(Shows the ratio of long vs. short positions held for AUD/USD among all OANDA clients. The left percentage (blue) shows long positions; the right percentage (orange) shows short positions.)

The long position ratio for AUD/USD has dropped back towards 55% as the AUD/USD remains steady above support at 0.77.  The trader sentiment is in favour of long positions.

Economic Releases

• 23:50 (Mon) JP Customs Cleared Trade (May)
• 01:30 AU New motor vehicle sales (May)
• 01:30 AU RBA June minutes released
• 08:30 UK CPI (May)
• 08:30 UK Input & Output Prices (May)
• 08:30 UK ONS House Prices (Apr)
• 09:00 EU ZEW (Economic Sentiment) (Jun)
• 12:30 US Building Permits (May)
• 12:30 US Housing Starts (May)
• US Federal Reserve FOMC meeting (to 17th)

* All release times are GMT

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