Eurogroup to Ponder Greece and Celebrate Irish Growth

The Eurogroup meeting this Monday has been actively preempted by comments to lower expectations. Eurogroup Chief Jeroen Dijsselbloem has said that there won’t be a deal on the 11 of May, but that he is happy with the progress made of late. Greek Prime Minister Alexis Tsipras is equally jubilant about the end of negotiations coming to an end soon. With Greece Finance Minister Yanis Varoufakis forced to take a backseat to the negotiations at the very least we can expect a more neutral and optimistic stream of soundbites that when the Economic rebel takes the stage.

The main topics to be covered are two sides of the same coin. Greece of course is on the agenda, but less well known is the report on the progress Ireland has made post bailout. The Eurogroup has released the results from its surveillance mission to Ireland and it shows a stronger economy post austerity. It will be interesting to see if any direct comparisons are made to Greece and their lack of cooperation as Tsipras maintain they will not cross the red lines to avoid affecting pensions and the labor sector.

The Eurogroup meeting and any comments from policy members over the weekend will set the stage for the rest of the week in the forex market. Greece is still an ongoing concern and as another deadline approaches all parties are optimistic about a positive outlook, but little has been done in order to achieve it. The uncertainty driven by the lack of a Greek debt deal or decision on an exit will hang over the market and in an ironic twist will keep the EUR bid until an outcome is reached and the ECB can continue with their QE program unimpeded. The central bank action will put pressure on the EUR once the political uncertainty stops affecting the fixed income market.

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Alfonso Esparza

Alfonso Esparza

Senior Currency Analyst at Market Pulse
Alfonso Esparza specializes in macro forex strategies for North American and major currency pairs. Upon joining OANDA in 2007, Alfonso Esparza established the MarketPulseFX blog and he has since written extensively about central banks and global economic and political trends. Alfonso has also worked as a professional currency trader focused on North America and emerging markets. He has been published by The MarketWatch, Reuters, the Wall Street Journal and The Globe and Mail, and he also appears regularly as a guest commentator on networks including Bloomberg and BNN. He holds a finance degree from the Monterrey Institute of Technology and Higher Education (ITESM) and an MBA with a specialization on financial engineering and marketing from the University of Toronto.
Alfonso Esparza