Gold is going to $1,300 by May: BofA technician

Gold has risen for five straight sessions and is now positive on the year. And according to one top technician, the rally has just begun.

On Tuesday’s episode of “Futures Now,” Bank of America Merrill Lynch’s head of global technical analysis, MacNeil Curry, said a near-term “correction” in the dollar over the “next couple of weeks,” paired with declining yields on Treasurys, should lay the groundwork for a sustained and sizable rally in gold that could see it break above $1,300 by the end of May.

“Rates are headed lower, and the dollar is likely to remain in a corrective sequence in general,” said Curry. “Gold should rally in that environment.”

According to Curry’s chart work, gold has been in a “sizable corrective phase” since November 2014. But recently, the yellow metal has shown signs of life. Moreover, Curry points out that gold’s inverse relationship to the dollar appears have broken down, which he interprets as another bullish sign for bullion.

“Gold has been on its own, really, since November,” Curry said. He points out that in November, gold “went from $1,132 up to $1,307 and throughout that time, the dollar index actually rose from about 87.5 to almost 95.”

Since gold is denominated in dollars, a rising U.S. currency often weighs on the value of bullion.

CNBC

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Craig Erlam

Craig Erlam

Senior Market Analyst - UK & EMEA at OANDA
Based in London, Craig Erlam joined OANDA in 2015 as a Market Analyst. With many years of experience as a financial market analyst and trader, he focuses on both fundamental and technical analysis while producing macroeconomic commentary. His views have been published in the Financial Times, Reuters, The Telegraph and the International Business Times, and he also appears as a regular guest commentator on the BBC, Bloomberg TV, FOX Business and BNN. Craig holds a full membership to the Society of Technical Analysts and is recognised as a Certified Financial Technician by the International Federation of Technical Analysts.
Craig Erlam