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Gartman: Crude could hit $15. Here’s why

Dennis Gartman has bad news for oil: It’s going to go “stunningly” lower.

In an interview Thursday with CNBC.com’s “Futures Now,” the Commodities King said that a combination of a rapidly rising inventories and a strong dollar could lead to $15 oil by the end of the year.

“For months I’ve said that crude oil is heading from the upper left to the lower right of the chart,” said the CNBC contributor and editor and publisher of The Gartman Letter. “I wouldn’t be surprised if oil went down to about $15 a barrel.”

Crude oil prices have been in a steep and steady decline over the past six months, down more than 50 percent trading just above $40 a barrel. Traders had hoped an improving economic picture in both the U.S. and Europe could give crude a lift.

Dennis Gartman has bad news for oil: It’s going to go “stunningly” lower.

In an interview Thursday with CNBC.com’s “Futures Now,” the Commodities King said that a combination of a rapidly rising inventories and a strong dollar could lead to $15 oil by the end of the year.

“For months I’ve said that crude oil is heading from the upper left to the lower right of the chart,” said the CNBC contributor and editor and publisher of The Gartman Letter. “I wouldn’t be surprised if oil went down to about $15 a barrel.”

Crude oil prices have been in a steep and steady decline over the past six months, down more than 50 percent trading just above $40 a barrel. Traders had hoped an improving economic picture in both the U.S. and Europe could give crude a lift.

At the start of February, crude staged a sharp and violent rally off its lows. But according to Gartman, there simply is too much supply to contend with. As such, he expects future crude rallies to be met with a similar fate.

“That is not how a bull market is supposed to act,” he said. “That is how a bear market acts.”

Gartman said he’s looking to the crude futures market for clues on when the selling may abate. Currently forward prices for crude contracts are higher than near-term or spot prices, a dynamic referred to as contango. Futures traders say this is typically a bearish sign as it reflects an excess near-term supply. As inventories build, storage could soon become a serious issue.

CNBC [1]

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Craig Erlam

Craig Erlam [5]

Senior Market Analyst, UK & EMEA at OANDA [6]
Based in London, Craig Erlam joined OANDA in 2015 as a market analyst. With many years of experience as a financial market analyst and trader, he focuses on both fundamental and technical analysis while producing macroeconomic commentary. His views have been published in the Financial Times, Reuters, The Telegraph and the International Business Times, and he also appears as a regular guest commentator on the BBC, Bloomberg TV, FOX Business and SKY News. Craig holds a full membership to the Society of Technical Analysts and is recognised as a Certified Financial Technician by the International Federation of Technical Analysts.
Craig Erlam
Craig Erlam

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