Watch out for another surprise from Bank of Japan Governor Haruhiko Kuroda this April, says Yuji Shimanaka, an economist who correctly predicted the unexpected expansion in monetary easing in October.
Shimanaka, at Mitsubishi UFJ Morgan Stanley Securities Co. in Tokyo, is among a minority of analysts who forecast that further stimulus will come so early. According to the 59-year-old, who has been a market economist for more than three decades, one of several gauges of consumer prices could approach zero or even decline by March, challenging the central bank’s outlook for inflation to accelerate in the year ahead and forcing its hand.
While 26 of 35 economists in a Feb. 5-10 survey by Bloomberg News forecast the BOJ will expand monetary stimulus this year, only seven expect a move in April, with Oct. 30 the most popular pick.
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