USD/JPY – Yen Unchanged on Weak US Data

The Japanese yen is unchanged on Thursday, as USD/JPY trades just above the 119 line. In the US, Unemployment Claims climbed to 313 thousand, while CPI slipped 0.7%, However, Core CPI edged higher, posting a small gain of 0.2%. In Japan, we’ll get a look at a host of indicators, highlighted by Tokyo Core CPI and Retail Sales. So, we could see some movement from USD/JPY following the Japanese releases.

US indicators were mixed on Thursday. Unemployment Claims jumped to a 6-week high, coming in at 313 thousand. This was much higher than the estimate of 288 thousand. On the inflation front, CPI posted a third straight decline, coming in at -0.7%. This was very close to the forecast of -0.6%. Core CPI improved to 0.2%, edging above the estimate of 0.1%.

Janet Yellen testified before Congressional committees on Tuesday and Wednesday, saying that the Fed was “unlikely” to raise interest rates in the next few months, given current economic conditions. Her remarks seemed aimed at quelling rising speculation about a rate hike sometime in mid-2015, which has helped boost the US dollar’s performance against its major rivals. Yellen noted that the continuing economic growth should lead to unemployment continuing to fall. Recent US data has been mixed, but employment numbers have generally been solid.

USD/JPY for Thursday, February 26, 2015

USD/JPY February 26 at 14:10 GMT

USD/JPY 119.13 H: 119.23 L: 118.68

 

USD/JPY Technical

S3 S2 S1 R1 R2 R3
116.69 117.49 118.69 119.83 120.63 121.69

 

  • USD/JPY was flat in the Asian session. The pair tested support at 118.69 in the European session but then recovered and moved higher.
  • 118.69 is a weak support line. 117.49 is stronger.
  • 119.83 is an immediate resistance line.
  • Current range: 118.69 to 119.83

Further levels in both directions:

  • Below: 118.69, 117.49, 116.69, 115.56 and 113.83
  • Above: 119.83, 120.63, 121.69 and 122.19

 

OANDA’s Open Positions Ratio

USD/JPY ratio is almost unchanged on Thursday. This is consistent with the pair’s movement, which is almost unchanged. The ratio has a majority of long positions, indicative of trader bias towards the US dollar breaking out and moving to higher ground.

USD/JPY Fundamentals

  • 13:30 US CPI. Estimate -0.6%. Actual -0.7%.
  • 13:30 US Core CPI. Estimate 0.1%. Actual 0.2%.
  • 13:30 US Unemployment Claims. Estimate 288K. Actual 313K.
  • 13:30 US Core Durable Goods Orders. Estimate 0.6%. Actual 0.3%.
  • 13:30 US Durable Goods Orders. Estimate 1.7%. Actual 2.8%.
  • 14:00 US HPI. Estimate 0.5%. Actual 0.8%.
  • 14:30 US Natural Gas Storage. Estimate -241B.
  • 18:00 US FOMC Member Dennis Lockhart.
  • 23:30 Japanese Household Spending. Estimate -4.0%.
  • 23:30 Japanese Tokyo Core CPI. Estimate 2.2%.
  • 23:30 Japanese National Core CPI. Estimate 2.4%.
  • 23:30 Japanese Unemployment Rate. Estimate 3.4%.
  • 23:50 Japanese Preliminary Industrial Production. Estimate 2.9%.
  • 23:50 Japanese Retail Sales. Estimate -1.2%.

*Key releases are highlighted in bold

*All release times are GMT

This article is for general information purposes only. It is not investment advice or a solution to buy or sell securities. Opinions are the authors; not necessarily that of OANDA Corporation or any of its affiliates, subsidiaries, officers or directors. Leveraged trading is high risk and not suitable for all. You could lose all of your deposited funds.

Kenny Fisher

Kenny Fisher

Currency Analyst at Market Pulse
Kenny Fisher joined OANDA in 2012 as a Currency Analyst. Kenny writes a daily column about current economic and political developments affecting the major currency pairs, with a focus on fundamental analysis. Kenny began his career in forex at Bendix Foreign Exchange in Toronto, where he worked as a Corporate Account Manager for over seven years.