EUR/USD – Almost Unchanged as German Consumer Climate Meets Expectations

EUR/USD is calm on Thursday, as the pair trades in the mid-1.13 line in the European session. On the release front, German Consumer Climate improved to 9.7 points. In the US, we’ll get a look at CPI and Unemployment Claims.

There was good news out of Germany on Thursday, as, Consumer Climate rose to 9.7 points in February, edging above the estimate of 9.6 points. Meanwhile, Greece’s list of economic reforms was accepted by the country’s creditors on Tuesday, paving the way for an extension of the bailout for another four months. The Greek government has promised to continue with privatization plans and to meet budget targets. Still, the extension is a stop-gap measure and with sharp differences remaining between Greece and its creditors, the bailout crisis is far from over.

Janet Yellen testified before Congressional committees on Tuesday and Wednesday, saying that the Fed was “unlikely” to raise interest rates in the next few months, given current economic conditions. Her remarks seemed aimed at quelling rising speculation about a rate hike sometime in mid-2015, which has helped boost the US dollar’s performance against its major rivals. Yellen noted that the continuing economic growth should lead to unemployment continuing to fall. Recent US data has been mixed, but employment numbers have generally been solid.

EUR/USD for Thursday, February 26, 2015

EUR/USD February 26 at 11:05 GMT

EUR/USD 1.1357 H: 1.1380 L: 1.1344

EUR/USD Technical

• EUR/USD has shown little movement in the Asian and European sessions.
• 1.1340 remains a weak support line. Will the pair break below this line during the day? 1.1231 is stronger.
• 1.1426 is an immediate resistance line.
• Current range: 1.1340 to 1.1426

Further levels in both directions:

• Below: 1.1340, 1.1231, 1.1154, 1.1066 and 1.0909
• Above: 1.1426, 1.1525, 1.1634 and 1.1754

OANDA’s Open Positions Ratio

EUR/USD ratio is unchanged on Thursday. This is consistent with the lack of movement shown by the pair. The ratio is pointing to short positions, indicative of trader bias towards EUR/USD losing ground.

EUR/USD Fundamentals

• 7:00 GfK German Consumer Climate. Estimate 9.6 points. Actual 9.7 points.
• 8:55 German Unemployment Change. Estimate -10K. Actual -20K.
• 9:00 Eurozone M3 Money Supply. Estimate 3.7%. Actual 4.1%.
• 9:00 Eurozone Private Loans. Estimate -0.3%. Actual -0.1%.
• 9:00 Eurozone Italian Retail Sales. Estimate 0.0%. Actual -0.2%.
• 10:23 Italian 10-year Bond Auction. Actual 1.36%.
• 13:30 US CPI. Estimate -0.6%.
• 13:30 US Core CPI. Estimate 0.1%.
• 13:30 US Unemployment Claims. Estimate 288K.
• 13:30 US Core Durable Goods Orders. Estimate 0.6%.
• 13:30 US Durable Goods Orders. Estimate 1.7%.
• 14:00 US HPI. Estimate 0.5%.
• 14:30 US Natural Gas Storage. Estimate -241B.
• 18:00 US FOMC Member Dennis Lockhart.

*Key releases are highlighted in bold

*All release times are GMT

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