AUD/USD – Aussie Dips on Weak Capital Expenditure Data

AUD/USD has lost ground on Thursday, as the pair trades in the low-78 range. On the release front, Australian Private Capital Expenditure posted a decline of 2.2%, missing expectations. In the US, Unemployment Claims climbed to 313 thousand, while CPI slipped 0.7%, However, Core CPI edged higher, posting a small gain of 0.2%.

US indicators were mixed on Thursday. Unemployment Claims jumped to a 6-week high, coming in at 313 thousand. This was much higher than the estimate of 288 thousand. On the inflation front, CPI posted a third straight decline, coming in at -0.7%. This was very close to the forecast of -0.6%. Core CPI improved to 0.2%, edging above the estimate of 0.1%.

Janet Yellen testified before Congressional committees on Tuesday and Wednesday, saying that the Fed was “unlikely” to raise interest rates in the next few months, given current economic conditions. Her remarks seemed aimed at quelling rising speculation about a rate hike sometime in mid-2015, which has helped boost the US dollar’s performance against its major rivals. Yellen noted that the continuing economic growth should lead to unemployment continuing to fall. Recent US data has been mixed, but employment numbers have generally been solid.

AUD/USD for Thursday, February 26, 2015

AUD/USD February 26 at 14:55 GMT

AUD/USD 0.7824 H: 0.7912 L: 0.7821

 

AUD/USD Technical

S3 S2 S1 R1 R2 R3
0.7582 0.7684 0.7799 0.7904 0.8081 0.8150

 

  • AUD/USD lost ground in the Asian session. In European trade, the pair moved higher but then reversed directions. AUD/USD continues to lose ground in the North American session and is putting pressure on support at 0.7799.
  • 0.7799 is providing weak support. 0.7684 is stronger.
  • On the upside, 0.7904 has some breathing room as the pair trades at lower levels.
  • Current range: 0.7799 to 0.7904

Further levels in both directions:

  • Below: 0.7799, 0.7684, 0.7582, 0.7403 and 0.7265
  • Above: 0.7904, 0.8081, 0.8150, 0.8214 and 0.8379

 

OANDA’s Open Positions Ratio

AUD/USD ratio is pointing to gains in long positions in Thursday, continuing the movement we saw a day earlier. This is not consistent with the pair’s movement, as the Aussie has posted losses. The ratio has switched to a majority of long positions, indicative of trader bias towards the Australian dollar reversing direction and moving higher.

AUD/USD Fundamentals

  • 00:30 Australian Private Capital Expenditure. Estimate -1.7%. Actual -2.2%.
  • 13:30 US CPI. Estimate -0.6%. Actual -0.7%.
  • 13:30 US Core CPI. Estimate 0.1%. Actual 0.2%.
  • 13:30 US Unemployment Claims. Estimate 288K. Actual 313K.
  • 13:30 US Core Durable Goods Orders. Estimate 0.6%. Actual 0.3%.
  • 13:30 US Durable Goods Orders. Estimate 1.7%. Actual 2.8%.
  • 14:00 US HPI. Estimate 0.5%. Actual 0.8%.
  • 14:30 US Natural Gas Storage. Estimate -241B.
  • 18:00 US FOMC Member Dennis Lockhart Speaks.

*Key releases are highlighted in bold

*All release times are GMT

This article is for general information purposes only. It is not investment advice or a solution to buy or sell securities. Opinions are the authors; not necessarily that of OANDA Corporation or any of its affiliates, subsidiaries, officers or directors. Leveraged trading is high risk and not suitable for all. You could lose all of your deposited funds.

Kenny Fisher

Kenny Fisher

Currency Analyst at Market Pulse
Kenny Fisher joined OANDA in 2012 as a Currency Analyst. Kenny writes a daily column about current economic and political developments affecting the major currency pairs, with a focus on fundamental analysis. Kenny began his career in forex at Bendix Foreign Exchange in Toronto, where he worked as a Corporate Account Manager for over seven years.