EUR/USD – Slight Gains Ahead of Key German Data

The euro continues to have a quiet week, as EUR/USD trades in the mid-1.13 range on Tuesday. On the release front, German and Eurozone ZEW Economic Sentiment will be released. Both indicators are expected to improve in the February reports. As well, EU finance ministers will meet in Brussels. In the US, today’s highlight is the Empire State Manufacturing Index.

The Greece bailout crisis continues, as Eurozone finance ministers (Eurogroup) abruptly halted talks on Monday aimed at reaching an agreement between Greece and its creditors. The bailout agreement expires at the end of February, and Eurogroup head Jeroen Dijsselbloem said that Greece must accept the next installment of funds under current bailout conditions. For its part, Greece has demanded easier austerity conditions while continuing to have access to bailout funds. Another meeting of the Eurogroup has been planned for Friday, and the markets will be nervously following developments on the bailout front during the week. The stakes are high, as lack of an agreement could lead to Greece leaving the Eurozone and abandoning the euro.

US releases wrapped up last week on a sour note, as the UoM Consumer Sentiment slipped for the first time in five months. The key indicator dropped to 93.6 points, down sharply from 98.2 in the previous report. On Thursday, retail sales and jobless numbers softened. Core Retail Sales declined by 0.9%, while Retail Sales dropped by 0.8%. Both indicators were well off their estimates of -0.4%. There was no relief from unemployment claims, which jumped to 304 thousand, compared to 284 thousand in the previous reading. The markets had expected a stronger reading of 282 thousand.

EUR/USD for Tuesday, February 17, 2015

EUR/USD February 17 at 9:35 GMT

EUR/USD 1.1386 H: 1.1396 L: 1.1322

 

EUR/USD Technical

S1 S2 S1 R1 R2 R3
1.1154 1.1231 1.1340 1.1426 1.1525 1.1634

 

  • EUR/USD showed limited movement in the Asian session. The pair has posted gains in European trade.
  • 1.1340 is a weak support level. 1.1231 is stronger.
  • On the upside, 1.1426 is under pressure. Will the pair break above this line during the day? 1.1525 is stronger.
  • Current range: 1.1340 to 1.1426

Further levels in both directions:

  • Below: 1.1340, 1.1231, 1.1154, 1.1066 and 1.0909
  • Above: 1.1426, 1.1525, 1.1634, 1.1754, 1.1802 and 1.1926

 

OANDA’s Open Positions Ratio

EUR/USD ratio is pointing to gains in long positions on Tuesday. This is consistent with the pair’s movement, as the euro has posted slight gains. The ratio has a majority of short positions, indicative of trader bias towards the euro reversing directions and moving lower.

EUR/USD Fundamentals

  • 9:00 Italian Trade Balance. Estimate 3.27B.
  • 10:00 German ZEW Economic Sentiment. Estimate 55.4 points.
  • 10:00 Eurozone ZEW Economic Sentiment. Estimate 51.3 points.
  • All Day – ECOFIN Meetings.
  • 13:30 US Empire State Manufacturing Index. Estimate 8.9 points.
  • 15:00 US NAHB Housing Market Index. Estimate 58 points.
  • 21:00 US TIC Long-Term Purchases. Estimate 41.3B.

*Key releases are highlighted in bold

*All release times are GMT

This article is for general information purposes only. It is not investment advice or a solution to buy or sell securities. Opinions are the authors; not necessarily that of OANDA Corporation or any of its affiliates, subsidiaries, officers or directors. Leveraged trading is high risk and not suitable for all. You could lose all of your deposited funds.

Kenny Fisher

Kenny Fisher

Currency Analyst at Market Pulse
Kenny Fisher joined OANDA in 2012 as a Currency Analyst. Kenny writes a daily column about current economic and political developments affecting the major currency pairs, with a focus on fundamental analysis. Kenny began his career in forex at Bendix Foreign Exchange in Toronto, where he worked as a Corporate Account Manager for over seven years.