EUR/USD – Unchanged in Holiday Trade

The euro is flat at the start of the week, as EUR/USD trades in the low-1.14 range on Monday. There are no US releases on the schedule, as the markets are closed for Presidents Day. The Eurozone trade surplus improved to EUR 23.3 billion, beating expectations. Today’s highlight is the Eurogroup meeting of financial ministers in Brussels, with the Greece bailout crisis on the top of the agenda.

The Greece saga continues on Monday as Eurozone finance ministers try to bridge the gap between Greece and its creditors. The bailout agreement expires at the end of February, and the next bailout payment of about EUR 7 billion is on hold as Greece has declared it will not abide by the austerity steps which are required to receive the funds. Greece is looking for bridge financing until a new deal can be reached, but Germany and the troika have balked at rewriting the agreement. If some progress is made at Monday’s meeting, the euro could get a boost.

There was good news from key Eurozone reports on Friday. Germany, the Eurozone’s largest economy, surprised the markets as Preliminary GDP for Q4 rose 0.7%, beating the estimate of 0.3%. Eurozone GDP improved to 0.3%, edging above the estimate of 0.2%. On Tuesday, we’ll get a look at Eurozone and German ZEW Economic Sentiment.

US releases wrapped up a disappointing week on a sour note, as the UoM Consumer Sentiment slipped for the first time in five months. The key indicator dropped to 93.6 points, down sharply from 98.2 in the previous report. On Thursday, retail sales and jobless numbers softened. Core Retail Sales declined by 0.9%, while Retail Sales dropped by 0.8%. Both indicators were well off their estimates of -0.4%. There was no relief from unemployment claims, which jumped to 304 thousand, compared to 284 thousand in the previous reading. The markets had expected a stronger reading of 282 thousand.

EUR/USD for Monday, February 16, 2015

EUR/USD February 16 at 12:15 GMT

EUR/USD 1.1417 H: 1.1429 L: 1.1395

EUR/USD Technical

• EUR/USD showed limited movement in the Asian session. The pair is unchanged in European trade.
• 1.1340 is an immediate support level.
• 1.1426 is a weak resistance line. Will the pair break above this line during the day? 1.1525 is stronger.
• Current range: 1.1340 to 1.1426

Further levels in both directions:

• Below: 1.1340, 1.1231, 1.1154, 1.1066 and 1.0909
• Above: 1.1426, 1.1525, 1.1634, 1.1754, 1.1802 and 1.1926

OANDA’s Open Positions Ratio

EUR/USD ratio is almost unchanged on Monday, continuing the trend we which has marked the ratio for most of last week. This is consistent with the lack of movement we are seeing from the pair. The ratio has a majority of short positions, indicative of trader bias towards the euro moving lower.

EUR/USD Fundamentals

• 10:00 Eurozone Trade Balance. Estimate 21.3B. Actual 23.3B.
• All Day – Eurogroup Meetings.
• 11:00 German Buba Monthly Report.

*Key releases are highlighted in bold

*All release times are GMT

This article is for general information purposes only. It is not investment advice or a solution to buy or sell securities. Opinions are the authors; not necessarily that of OANDA Corporation or any of its affiliates, subsidiaries, officers or directors. Leveraged trading is high risk and not suitable for all. You could lose all of your deposited funds.