AUD/USD – Aussie Struggling After Weak Employment Data

AUD/USD is under pressure on Thursday, as the pair trades just above the 0.77 line. In Australia, Employment Change declined by 12.2 thousand, while the unemployment rate jumped to 6.4%. In the US, major releases were dismal. Core Retail Sales declined by 0.9% and Retail Sales followed suit with a drop of 0.8%. Unemployment Claims climbed sharply to 304 thousand.

Australian employment data softened in January, as the Australian economy continues to struggle. Employment Change dropped by 12.2 thousand, well off the estimate of -4.7 thousand. This marked the first decline since September. The employment rate was unexpectedly higher, climbing to 6.4%, up from 6.1% a month earlier. The estimate stood at 6.2%.

In the US, retail sales pointed to sharp declines. Core Retail Sales declined by 0.9%, while Retail Sales dropped by 0.8%. Both were well off their estimates of -0.4%. There was no relief from unemployment claims, which jumped to 304 thousand, compared to 284 thousand in the previous reading. The markets had expected a stronger reading of 282 thousand.

AUD/USD for Thursday, February 12, 2015

AUD/USD February 12 at 14:50 GMT

AUD/USD 0.7712 H: 0.7728 L: 0.7644


AUD/USD Technical

S3 S2 S1 R1 R2 R3
0.7403 0.7582 0.7684 0.7799 0.7904 0.8081


  • AUD/USD posted losses early in Asian session, testing support at 0.7684. The pair was uneventful in the European session. AUD/USD has moved higher in North American trade, erasing most of the earlier losses.
  • 0.7799 is an immediate resistance line.
  • 0.7684 remains a weak support line. 0.7582 is stronger.
  • Current range: 0.7684 to 0.7799

Further levels in both directions:

  • Below: 0.7684, 0.7582, 0.7403 and 0.7265
  • Above: 0.7799, 0.7904, 0.8081, 0.8150 and 0.8214


OANDA’s Open Positions Ratio

AUD/USD ratio is almost unchanged on Thursday, continuing the lack of movement we saw a day earlier. This is consistent with the lack of movement displayed by the pair. The ratio has a majority of long positions, indicative of trader bias towards the Australian dollar moving higher.

AUD/USD Fundamentals

  • 00:00 Australian MI Inflation Expectations. Actual 4.0%.
  • 00:30 Australian Employment Change. Estimate -4.7 thousand. Actual -12.2 thousand.
  • 00:30 Australian Unemployment Rate. Estimate 6.2%. Actual 6.4%.
  • 13:30 US Core Retail Sales. Estimate -0.4%. Actual -0.9%.
  • 13:30 US Retail Sales. Estimate -0.4%. Actual -0.8%.
  • 13:30 US Unemployment Claims. Estimate 282 thousand. Actual 304K.
  • 15:00 US Business Inventories. Estimate 0.2%. Actual 0.1%.
  • 15:30 US Natural Gas Storage. Estimate -165B.
  • 18:01 US 30-year Bond Auction.

*Key releases are highlighted in bold

*All release times are GMT

This article is for general information purposes only. It is not investment advice or a solution to buy or sell securities. Opinions are the authors; not necessarily that of OANDA Corporation or any of its affiliates, subsidiaries, officers or directors. Leveraged trading is high risk and not suitable for all. You could lose all of your deposited funds.

Kenny Fisher

Kenny Fisher

Market Analyst at OANDA
A highly experienced financial market analyst with a focus on fundamental analysis, Kenneth Fisher’s daily commentary covers a broad range of markets including forex, equities and commodities. His work has been published in several major online financial publications including, Seeking Alpha and FXStreet. Based in Israel, Kenny has been a MarketPulse contributor since 2012.
Kenny Fisher

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