AUD/USD – Aussie Softens Despite Strong Consumer Sentiment

AUD/USD has posted modest losses on Wednesday, as the pair trades in the mid-0.77 range. On the release front, Australian Consumer Sentiment jumped 8.0%, while Home Loans improved by 2.7%. In the US, there are no major releases on the schedule.

There was excellent news from Australian releases on Wednesday, but the Aussie failed to take advantage. On Tuesday, Consumer Sentiment climbed 8.0%, to 100.5 points. This is the indicator’s highest level since January 2014. The strong reading was followed by Home Loans, which bounced back in December with a gain of 2.7%. This beat the estimate of 2.3%.

US employment numbers continue to impress, as JOLTS Jobs Openings climbed to 5.05 million, matching expectations. This was the indicator’s highest level since 2001, and points to more available jobs due to an increase in demand for goods and services. The strong reading follows a solid US Nonfarm Payrolls report for January, which was released on Friday. The key employment indicator improved to 257 thousand in January, up from 252 thousand a month earlier. This easily beat the estimate of 236 thousand. The Federal Reserve has been clear that the employment numbers will have to be strong before a rate hike kicks in, so these strong employment releases reinforce expectations for an interest rate in mid-2015, which would be a major boost for the US dollar.

AUD/USD for Wednesday, February 11, 2015

AUD/USD February 11 at 12:30 GMT

AUD/USD 0.7735 H: 0.7793 L: 0.7713

 

AUD/USD Technical

S3 S2 S1 R1 R2 R3
0.7403 0.7582 0.7684 0.7799 0.7904 0.8081

 

  • AUD/USD showed little movement in the Asian session. The pair has posted modest losses in European trade.
  • 0.7799 is an immediate resistance line.
  • 0.7684 has weakened in support as the pair trades at lower levels. 0.7582 is stronger.
  • Current range: 0.7684 to 0.7799

Further levels in both directions:

  • Below: 0.7684, 0.7582, 0.7403 and 0.7265
  • Above: 0.7799, 0.7904, 0.8081, 0.8150 and 0.8214

 

OANDA’s Open Positions Ratio

AUD/USD ratio is showing little change on Wednesday. This is not consistent with the pair’s movement, as the Aussie has posted losses. The ratio has a majority of long positions, indicative of trader bias towards the Australian dollar reversing direction and moving higher.

AUD/USD Fundamentals

  • 00:30 Australian Home Loans. Estimate 2.3%. Actual 2.7%.
  • 15:30 US Crude Oil Inventories. Estimate 3.7M.
  • 18:01 US 10-year Bond Auction.
  • 19:00 US Federal Budget Balance. Estimate -2.6B.
  • RBA Assistant Governor Guy Debelle Speaks.

*Key releases are highlighted in bold

*All release times are GMT

This article is for general information purposes only. It is not investment advice or a solution to buy or sell securities. Opinions are the authors; not necessarily that of OANDA Corporation or any of its affiliates, subsidiaries, officers or directors. Leveraged trading is high risk and not suitable for all. You could lose all of your deposited funds.

Kenny Fisher

Kenny Fisher

Currency Analyst at Market Pulse
Kenny Fisher joined OANDA in 2012 as a Currency Analyst. Kenny writes a daily column about current economic and political developments affecting the major currency pairs, with a focus on fundamental analysis. Kenny began his career in forex at Bendix Foreign Exchange in Toronto, where he worked as a Corporate Account Manager for over seven years.