AUD/USD has posted gains on Monday, as the pair trades in the low-0.78 range. On the release front, Australian ANZ Job Advertisements posted a gain of 1.3%. As well, RBA Governor Glenn Stevens spoke at an event in Sydney. Over in the US, the Labor Market Conditions Index slipped to 4.9 points in January.
US releases ended the week with a superb US Nonfarm Payrolls report for January. The key employment indicator improved to 257 thousand in January, up from 252 thousand a month earlier. This easily beat the estimate of 236 thousand. The Federal Reserve has been clear that the employment numbers will have to be strong before a rate hike kicks in, so the strong NFP reading has reinforced expectations for an interest rate in mid-2015, which would be a boost for the US dollar.
Last week, Australian Retail Sales, the key gauge of consumer spending, posted a weak gain of 0.2%. This was within expectations, as the estimate stood at 0.3%. Still, the weak reading points to sluggish consumer spending. The economy will have trouble shifting into higher gear if the Australian consumer doesn’t loosen the purse strings. NAB Quarterly Business Confidence disappointed, as the key indicator dropped to 2 points in Q4, down from 6 points in Q3. Business confidence is a key component of economic growth, so this soft reading is a cause for concern.
AUD/USD for Monday, February 9, 2015
AUD/USD February 9 at 15:40 GMT
AUD/USD 0.7826 H: 0.7834 L: 0.7748
- AUD/USD was uneventful in the Asian session. The pair posted gains in the European session, breaking above resistance at 0.7799. AUD/USD has edged higher in North American trade.
- 0.7799 has reverted to a support role. It is a weak line which could see action in the North American session. 0.7684 is stronger.
- 0.7904 is an immediate resistance line.
- Current range: 0.7799 to 0.7904
Further levels in both directions:
- Below: 0.7799, 0.7684, 0.7582, 0.7403 and 0.7265
- Above: 0.7904, 0.8081, 0.8150 and 0.8214
OANDA’s Open Positions Ratio
AUD/USD ratio is pointing to gains in short positions on Monday. This is not consistent with the pair’s movement, as the Aussie has posted small gains. The ratio remains close to a split between long and short positions, indicative of a lack of trader bias as to what direction the AUD/USD will take next.
- 00:30 RBA Governor Glenn Stevens Speaks.
- 00:00 Australian ANZ Job Advertisements. Actual 1.3%.
- 15:00 US Labor Market Conditions Index. Actual 4.9 points.
- 21:00 US FOMC Member Jerome Powell Speaks.
*Key releases are highlighted in bold
*All release times are GMT
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