EUR/USD – Euro Moves Higher, Pushes Past 1.13

The euro continues to post gains on Tuesday, as EUR/USD trades just above the 1.13 line in the European session. On the release front, there are no Eurozone economic reports. EU finance ministers will meet in Brussels later in the day. It’s a busy day in the US, with three key events on the calendar – Core Durable Goods Orders, CB Consumer Confidence and New Home Sales.

Greece remains the focus of the markets as voters gave a sweeping mandate to the far-left Syriza party. Syriza ran on a platform of ending the crushing austerity scheme which Greeks have endured as part of the €240 billion bailout negotiated between and the EU, ECB and IMF. Predictably, the euro fell immediately after the election results, slipping to the 1.11 line. However, the common currency has recovered nicely, gaining about 100 points on Monday and continuing to move upwards on Tuesday.

Syriza’s win certainly throws a monkey wrench into the Greek bailout program, but the new Greek government is likely to negotiate a deal with Greece’s creditors. A Greek exit from the Eurozone may make for interesting headlines, but such a scenario is extremely unlikely. Indeed, Greek Prime Minister-elect Alexis Tsipras has promised to keep Greece in the Eurozone. Still, there remains plenty of uncertainty as to what will happen with the bailout plan, so traders can expect events in Athens to have a strong impact on the movement of the euro.

The Federal Reserve starts a two-day meeting on Tuesday and will release a policy statement on Wednesday. The Fed is expected to continue to counsel patience regarding an interest rate hike, and persistently weak inflation means the Fed can take its time before having to make a monetary move. The markets will be combing through the statement and any clues as to the timing of  rate hike could have a strong effect on the movement of EUR/USD.

EUR/USD for Tuesday, January 27, 2015

EUR/USD January 27 at 9:35 GMT

EUR/USD 1.1324 H: 1.1345 L: 1.1224

EUR/USD Technical

• EUR/USD was flat in the Asian session. In European trade the pair has gained ground, testing resistance at 1.1340.
• 1.1231 has strengthened as the pair trades at higher levels.
• 1.1340 is under pressure and could break during the day. 1.1426 is stronger.
• Current range: 1.1231 to 1.1340

Further levels in both directions:

• Below: 1.1231, 1.1154, 1.1066, 1.0906 and 1.0792
• Above: 1.1340, 1.1426, 1.1525 and 1.1634

OANDA’s Open Positions Ratio

EUR/USD ratio is pointing to gains in long positions on Tuesday, reversing the direction seen a day earlier. This is consistent with the pair’s movement, as the euro continues to post gains. The ratio currently has a majority of short positions, indicative of trader bias towards the euro reversing directions and moving lower.

EUR/USD Fundamentals

• All Day – ECOFIN Meetings.
• 13:30 US Core Durable Goods Orders. Estimate 0.6%.
• 13:30 US Durable Goods Orders. Estimate 0.6%.
• 14:00 US S&P/CS Composite-20 HPI. Estimate 4.4%.
• 14:45 US Flash Services PMI. Estimate 53.9 points.
• 15:00 US CB Consumer Confidence. Estimate 95.3 points.
• 15:00 US New Home Sales. Estimate 452K.
• 15:00 US Richmond Manufacturing Index. Estimate 6 points.

*Key releases are highlighted in bold

*All release times are GMT

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