AUD/USD – Little Movement as Unemployment Claims Miss Expectations

AUD/USD is calm on Thursday, as the pair trades in the low-0.81 range. In Australia, MI Inflation Expectations posted a gain of 3.2%. HIA New Home Sales softened in December, with a gain of 2.2%. Over in the US, today’s highlight was Unemployment Claims. The indicator dipped to 301 thousand, short of expectations.

US unemployment claims missed expectations for the second straight week. The key indicator improved to 309 thousand, better than the previous reading of 316 thousand. This fell short of the estimate of 301 thousand. Although the US labor market has improved, this is the fourth straight reading where unemployment claims has missed expectations. On Wednesday, construction readings were a mix. Building Permits came in at 1.03 million, short of the estimate of 1.06M. Housing Starts improved to 1.09 million, beating expectations of 1.04M.

Earlier in the week, there was good news from Australian consumer indicators. Westpac Consumer Sentiment impressed in December, as the indicator posted a strong gain of 2.4%, rebounding from a sharp decline of 5.7% a month earlier. The indicator has fluctuated considerably, making it a tricky task to gauge the mood of the Australian consumer. New Motor Vehicle Sales also looked sharp, posting an excellent gain of 3.0% gain.

AUD/USD for Thursday, January 22, 2015

AUD/USD January 22 at 14:20 GMT

AUD/USD 0.8085 H: 0.8136 L: 0.8056


AUD/USD Technical

S3 S2 S1 R1 R2 R3
0.7799 0.7904 0.8081 0.8150 0.8214 0.8315


  • AUD/USD edged lower in the Asian session. The pair recovered in European trade, putting pressure on resistance at 0.8150. The pair has backtracked in the North American session.
  • 0.8081 is fluid and could see more action in the North American session. 0.7904 is stronger.
  • 0.8150 is an immediate resistance line. 0.8214 is next.
  • Current range: 0.8081 to 0.8150.

Further levels in both directions:

  • Below: 0.8081, 0.7904, 0.7799 and 0.7684
  • Above: 0.8150, 0.8214, 0.8315, 0.8456 and 0.8547


OANDA’s Open Positions Ratio

AUD/USD ratio is pointing to gains in long positions on Thursday. This is not consistent with the pair’s movement, as the pair has shown little movement. The ratio has a majority of long positions, indicative of trader bias towards AUD/USD moving higher.

AUD/USD Fundamentals

  • 00:00 Australian MI Inflation Expectations. Actual 3.2%.
  • 00:00 Australian HIA New Home Sales. Actual 2.2%.
  • 13:30 US Unemployment Claims. Estimate 301K. Actual 309K.
  • 14:00 US HPI. Estimate 0.4%. Actual 0.8%.
  • 15:00 US Consumer Confidence. Estimate -11 points.
  • 15:30 US Natural Gas Storage. Estimate -231B.
  • 16:00 US Crude Oil Inventories. Estimate 2.5M.

*Key releases are highlighted in bold

*All release times are GMT

This article is for general information purposes only. It is not investment advice or a solution to buy or sell securities. Opinions are the authors; not necessarily that of OANDA Corporation or any of its affiliates, subsidiaries, officers or directors. Leveraged trading is high risk and not suitable for all. You could lose all of your deposited funds.

Kenny Fisher

Kenny Fisher

Market Analyst at OANDA
A highly experienced financial market analyst with a focus on fundamental analysis, Kenneth Fisher’s daily commentary covers a broad range of markets including forex, equities and commodities. His work has been published in several major online financial publications including, Seeking Alpha and FXStreet. Based in Israel, Kenny has been a MarketPulse contributor since 2012.
Kenny Fisher

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