China Growth Likely to Miss Forecasts Next Week

China is poised to report full-year growth that falls short of the government’s official target, according to a CNNMoney survey of economists.

Gross domestic product is likely to have expanded by 7.3% in 2014, compared to the same period last year, according to a median estimate of eight economists. While that is below the government’s 7.5% goal, officials have said they will tolerate growth that is slightly below target.

Fourth-quarter growth is expected to be 7.2%, according to the survey, while GDP is forecast to dip further to 7% in 2015.
The National Bureau of Statistics will announce official fourth-quarter and full-year GDP figures on Jan. 20.
GDP growth in China remains the most comprehensive gauge of the country’s economic health — an important number to watch as the government works to reform the world’s second-largest economy and shift to consumption-driven growth.

China averaged economic expansion of around 10% a year over the past three decades, pushing it up the list of biggest economies and boosting household wealth. But now, the pace of growth is languishing — China recorded GDP growth of 7.7% in 2012 and 2013, a marked slowdown from 9.3% in 2011 and 10.5% in 2010.

via CNN

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Alfonso Esparza

Alfonso Esparza

Senior Currency Analyst at Market Pulse
Alfonso Esparza specializes in macro forex strategies for North American and major currency pairs. Upon joining OANDA in 2007, Alfonso Esparza established the MarketPulseFX blog and he has since written extensively about central banks and global economic and political trends. Alfonso has also worked as a professional currency trader focused on North America and emerging markets. He has been published by The MarketWatch, Reuters, the Wall Street Journal and The Globe and Mail, and he also appears regularly as a guest commentator on networks including Bloomberg and BNN. He holds a finance degree from the Monterrey Institute of Technology and Higher Education (ITESM) and an MBA with a specialization on financial engineering and marketing from the University of Toronto.
Alfonso Esparza