USD/JPY – Limited Movement Ahead of US Jobs Data

USD/JPY has posted small gains on Tuesday, as the pair trades in the mid-118 range in the North American session. On the release front, Japanese Economy Watchers Sentiment improved to 45.2 points. Later in the day, we’ll get a look at M2 Money Stock. In the US, today’s major event is JOLTS Job Openings, with the markets expecting a strong reading of 4.86 million.

There was good news out of Japan on Monday, as Current Account posted another strong reading in November. The account surplus improved to JPY 0.91 trillion, easily beating the estimate of 0.69 trillion. The next major release is set for Wednesday, with a look at Core Machinery Orders. The markets are expecting a strong gain of 4.8% for the November reading.

US releases wrapped up the week in fine fashion, as employment data shined. Nonfarm Employment Change, one of the most important indicators, posted a gain of 252 thousand, easily beating the estimate of 241 thousand. The unemployment rate fell to 5.6%, edging below the forecast of 5.7%. Meanwhile, Average Earnings dropped 0.2%, its first decline since July 2013. A lack of wage pressure means that the Fed may be able to postpone a rate hike until the second half of 2015.

USD/JPY for Tuesday, January 13, 2015

USD/JPY January 13 at 13:10 GMT

USD/JPY 118.43 H: 118.85 L: 117.74

USD/JPY Technical

• USD/JPY was choppy in the Asian session, testing support at 117.94. The pair has been steady in the European and North American sessions.
• 118.69 is a weak resistance line. 119.83 is stronger.
• 117.94 is an immediate support level.
• Current range: 117.94 to 118.69

Further levels in both directions:

• Below: 117.94, 116.69, 115.56 and 113.64
• Above: 118.69, 119.83, 120.63, 121.39 and 122.18

OANDA’s Open Positions Ratio

USD/JPY ratio is almost unchanged on Tuesday. This is consistent with the pair’s movement, as the pair is showing little change on the day. The ratio has a majority of long positions, indicative of trader bias towards the dollar breaking out of range and moving upwards.

USD/JPY Fundamentals

• 5:03 Japanese Economy Watchers Sentiment. Estimate 44.3 points. Actual 45.2 points.
• 12:30 US NFIB Small Business Index. Estimate 98.6 points. Actual 110.4 points.
• 15:00 US JOLTS Jobs Openings. Estimate 4.86M.
• 15:00 US IBD/TIPP Economic Optimism. Estimate 48.9 points.
• 18:01 US 10-year Bond Auction.
• 19:00 US Federal Budget Balance. Estimate 3.8B.
• 23:50 Japanese M2 Money Stock. Estimate 3.6%.

*Key releases are highlighted in bold

*All release times are GMT

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