USD/CAD – Limited Activity as US Jobless Claims Dips Lower

The Canadian dollar is showing little change on Wednesday, as USD/CAD trades just above the 1.16 line in the North American session. On the release front, US Unemployment Claims dropped to 280 thousand, beating the forecast. Crude Oil Inventories was unexpectedly strong, posting a gain of 7.3 million last week. There are no Canadian releases on Wednesday.

US Unemployment Claims continues to drop, reflecting a brighter employment picture as the economy continues to pick up steam. The indicator dropped to 280 thousand last week. This easily beat the estimate of 291 thousand and marked a fourth straight drop. There was excellent news on Tuesday, as GDP soared by 5.0% in Q3, ahead of the estimate of 4.6%. This marked the indicator’s strongest gain since the third quarter of 2003. The US economy is expected to continue to surge in 2015, driven by increased consumer spending and confidence. The news was not as positive from Core Durable Goods Orders, which posted a decline of 0.4%, its fourth decline in five readings. The reading was well off the estimate of 1.1%. Durable Goods Orders looked even worse, with a reading of -0.7%. This surprised the markets which had anticipated a strong gain of 3.0%.

Elsewhere in the US, housing data continues to weaken as New Home Sales slipped to 438 thousand, its poorest showing since July and well short of the forecast of 461 thousand. UoM Consumer Sentiment continues to rise, hitting 93.6 points in December. This marked its highest level since February 2007, as the US consumer remains very optimistic about the economy as we move into 2015.

On Tuesday, Canadian GDP, which is released monthly, posted a gain of 0.3%. This was shy of the previous release of 0.4%, but still beat the forecast of 0.1%. The reading was an improvement after Friday’s inflation and retail sales reports. Core CPI declined 0.2%, while CPI declined 0.4%. Both readings marked a 4-month low. Core Retail Sales edged higher to 0.2%, up from 0.0%. Retail Sales came in at a flat 0.0%, beating the estimate but much lower than the previous release of 0.8%.

USD/CAD for Wednesday, December 24, 2014

USD/CAD December 24 at 16:00 GMT

USD/CAD 1.1615 H: 1.1641 L: 1.1590

 

USD/CAD Technical

S3 S2 S1 R1 R2 R3
1.1278 1.1414 1.1493 1.1669 1.1723 1.1875

 

  • USD/CAD has been uneventful, with the pair trading close to the 1.16 line.
  • 1.1493 continues to provide strong support.
  • On the upside, 1.1669 remains a weak resistance line. 1.1723 is next.
  • Current range: 1.1493 to 1.1669

Further levels in both directions:

  • Below: 1.1493, 1.1414, 1.1278, 1.1124 and 1.1004
  • Above: 1.1669, 1.1723, 1.1875 and 1.1975

 

OANDA’s Open Positions Ratio

USD/CAD ratio is unchanged on Wednesday, continuing the trend we have seen all week. This is consistent with the movement of the pair, as USD/CAD has shown limited movement. The ratio has a majority of short positions, indicative of trader bias towards USD/CAD moving to lower ground.

  • 13:30 US Unemployment Claims. Estimate 291K. Actual 280K.
  • 15:30 US Crude Oil Inventories. Estimate -2.4M. Actual 7.3M.
  • 17:00 US Natural Gas Storage. Estimate -81B.

*Key releases are highlighted in bold

*All release times are GMT

This article is for general information purposes only. It is not investment advice or a solution to buy or sell securities. Opinions are the authors; not necessarily that of OANDA Corporation or any of its affiliates, subsidiaries, officers or directors. Leveraged trading is high risk and not suitable for all. You could lose all of your deposited funds.

Kenny Fisher

Kenny Fisher

Currency Analyst at Market Pulse
Kenny Fisher joined OANDA in 2012 as a Currency Analyst. Kenny writes a daily column about current economic and political developments affecting the major currency pairs, with a focus on fundamental analysis. Kenny began his career in forex at Bendix Foreign Exchange in Toronto, where he worked as a Corporate Account Manager for over seven years.