EUR/USD – Stable as German Manufacturing PMI Improves

EUR/USD is steady on Tuesday, as the pair trades in the mid-1.24 range in the European session. On the release front, it’s a busy day in the Eurozone. German Manufacturing PMI improved to 51.4 points, and the Eurozone reading improved to 50.8 points. Later in the day, we’ll get a look at German ZEW Economic Sentiment and Eurozone CPI. In the US, today’s major events are Building Permits and Housing Starts.

There was some good news on the Eurozone manufacturing front, as German Manufacturing PMI improved to 51.2 points, up from 50.0 points a month earlier. A reading above the 50-point level indicates expansion. The Eurozone released improved to 50.8 points, up from 50.4 points. French Manufacturing PMI showed little change, coming in at 47.9 points. The index has been under 50 since April, indicative of ongoing contraction. Services PMIs were mixed, as the German release weakened, while the Eurozone and French readings improved.

The US ended last week with mixed news, as inflation dipped while consumer confidence jumped. The Producer Price Index, the primary gauge of manufacturing inflation, dropped by 0.2%, its worst showing in six months. The estimate stood at -0.1%. Meanwhile, UoM Consumer Sentiment moved higher for a fourth straight month, pointing to increased optimism among US consumers. The key indicator soared to 93.8 points, its highest level since January 2007 and well above the forecast of 89.6 points. There was more good news from retail sales and jobless claims. Core Retail Sales came in at 0.5%, ahead of the estimate of 0.1%. Not to be undone, Retail Sales posted a gain of 0.7%, beating the estimate of 0.4%. This was the indicator’s strongest showing in 12 months. There was more good news on the job front, as Unemployment Claims dipped to 294 thousand, below the forecast of 299 thousand.

EUR/USD for Tuesday, December 16, 2014

EUR/USD December 16 at 8:40 GMT

EUR/USD 1.2476 H: 1.2481 L: 1.2435

EUR/USD Technical

S1 S2 S1 R1 R2 R3
1.2143 1.2286 1.2407 1.2518 1.2688 1.2806

 

  • EUR/USD was uneventful in the Asian session. The euro has moved higher early in the European session.
  • 1.2407 is an immediate support level.
  • 1.2518 is a weak resistance line. 1.2688 is stronger.
  • Current range: 1.2407 to 1.2518

Further levels in both directions:

  • Below: 1.2407, 1.2286, 1.2143, 1.2042 and 119.26
  • Above: 1.2518, 1.2688, 1.2806 and 1.2930

 

OANDA’s Open Positions Ratio

EUR/USD ratio is pointing to gains in long positions on Tuesday, reversing the direction we saw a day earlier. This is consistent with the pair’s movement, as the euro has posted small gains. The ratio is pointing to a majority of short positions, indicative of trader towards the pair moving lower.

EUR/USD Fundamentals

  • 8:00 French Flash Manufacturing PMI. Estimate 48.7 points. Actual 47.9 points.
  • 8:00 French Flash Services PMI. Estimate 48.6 points. Actual 49.8 points.
  • 8:30 German Flash Manufacturing PMI. Estimate 50.4 points. Actual 51.2  points.
  • 8:30 German Flash Services PMI. Estimate 52.6 points. Actual 51.4 points.
  • 9:00 Eurozone Flash Manufacturing PMI. Estimate 50.5 points. Actual 50.8  points.
  • 9:00 Eurozone Flash Services PMI. Estimate 51.6 points. Actual 51.9 points.
  • 9:00 Italian Trade Balance. Estimate 1.97B.
  • 10:00 German ZEW Economic Sentiment. Estimate 19.8 points.
  • 10:00 Eurozone ZEW Economic Sentiment. Estimate 20.1 points.
  • 10:00 Eurozone Trade Balance. Estimate 18.2 B.
  • 13:30 US Building Permits. Estimate 1.06M.
  • 14:15 US Housing Starts. Estimate 1.04M.
  • 14:45 US Flash Manufacturing PMI. Estimate 56.1 points.

* Key releases are highlighted in bold

*All release times are GMT

This article is for general information purposes only. It is not investment advice or a solution to buy or sell securities. Opinions are the authors; not necessarily that of OANDA Corporation or any of its affiliates, subsidiaries, officers or directors. Leveraged trading is high risk and not suitable for all. You could lose all of your deposited funds.

Kenny Fisher

Kenny Fisher

Currency Analyst at Market Pulse
Kenny Fisher joined OANDA in 2012 as a Currency Analyst. Kenny writes a daily column about current economic and political developments affecting the major currency pairs, with a focus on fundamental analysis. Kenny began his career in forex at Bendix Foreign Exchange in Toronto, where he worked as a Corporate Account Manager for over seven years.