AUD/USD – Little Change as Aussie at 0.82

AUD/USD is showing little change on Monday, as the pair trades slightly above the 0.82 line early in the North American session. On the release front, Australian New Motor Vehicle Sales posted a 1.6% decline. As well, the government released its mid-year economic and fiscal outlook, and reported that the budget deficit was wider than expected. In the US, manufacturing data was mixed, as the Empire State Manufacturing Index tumbled to -3.6 points, while Industrial Production posted a strong gain of 1.3%.

The week did not start out well in Australia, as New Motor Vehicles Sales dropped by 0.6%, its fifth decline in six readings. The indicator is an important gauge of consumer spending, as new cars and trucks are big-ticket items which consumers will forego if the economy is not doing well. As well, the government released its mid-year economic and fiscal outlook, which is a report card on how well the economy is doing compared to what was the forecast in the budget release back in May. The news was not encouraging, as the government noted that the budget deficit will come in at A$40.4 billion, up from the May estimate of A$29.8 billion. Also, the unemployment rate is forecast to hit 6.5% by mid-2015, up from 6.25% in the budget release.

The US ended the week with mixed news, as inflation dipped while consumer confidence jumped. The Producer Price Index, the primary gauge of manufacturing inflation, dropped by 0.2%, its worst showing in six months. The estimate stood at -0.1%. Meanwhile, UoM Consumer Sentiment moved higher for a fourth straight month, pointing to increased optimism among US consumers. The key indicator soared to 93.8 points, its highest level since January 2007 and well above the forecast of 89.6 points. On Friday, there was good news from retail sales and jobless claims. Core Retail Sales came in at 0.5%, ahead of the estimate of 0.1%. Not to be undone, Retail Sales posted a gain of 0.7%, beating the estimate of 0.4%. This was the indicator’s strongest showing in 12 months. There was more good news on the job front, as Unemployment Claims dipped to 294 thousand, below the forecast of 299 thousand.

AUD/USD for Monday, December 15, 2014

AUD/USD December 15 at 15:30 GMT

AUD/USD 0.8218 H: 0.8268 L: 0.8202

 

AUD/USD Technical

S3 S2 S1 R1 R2 R3
0.8081 0.8150 0.8214 0.8315 0.8456 0.8550

 

  • AUD/USD moved upwards in the Asian session, only to see the gains evaporate in European trade. In the North American session, the pair is steady.
  • 0.8214 is under strong pressure. Will this line break in the North American session? 0.8150 is stronger.
  • 0.8315 is an immediate resistance line.
  • Current range: 0.8214 to 0.8315.

Further levels in both directions:

  • Below: 0.8214, 0.8150, 0.8081 and 0.7904
  • Above: 0.8315, 0.8456, 0.8550, 0.8668 and 0.8763

 

OANDA’s Open Positions Ratio

AUD/USD ratio is almost unchanged on Monday. This is consistent with the pair, which is almost unchanged on the day. The ratio has a majority of long positions, indicative of trader bias towards AUD/USD moving higher.

AUD/USD Fundamentals

  • 00:30 Australian New Motor Vehicle Sales. Actual -0.6%.
  • 2:24 Australian Mid-Year Economic and Fiscal Outlook.
  • 13:30 US Empire State Manufacturing Index. Estimate 12.1 points. Actual -3.6 points.
  • 14:15 US Capacity Utilization Rate. Estimate 79.4%. Actual 80.1%.
  • 14:15 US Industrial Production. Estimate 0.8%. Actual 1.3%.
  • 15:00 US NAHB Housing Market Index. Estimate 59 points. Actual 57 points.
  • 21:00 US TIC Long-Term Purchases. Estimate 72.8B.

*Key releases are highlighted in bold

*All release times are GMT

This article is for general information purposes only. It is not investment advice or a solution to buy or sell securities. Opinions are the authors; not necessarily that of OANDA Corporation or any of its affiliates, subsidiaries, officers or directors. Leveraged trading is high risk and not suitable for all. You could lose all of your deposited funds.

Kenny Fisher

Kenny Fisher

Currency Analyst at Market Pulse
Kenny Fisher joined OANDA in 2012 as a Currency Analyst. Kenny writes a daily column about current economic and political developments affecting the major currency pairs, with a focus on fundamental analysis. Kenny began his career in forex at Bendix Foreign Exchange in Toronto, where he worked as a Corporate Account Manager for over seven years.