USD/CAD – Steady Ahead of Key US Numbers

The Canadian dollar is steady on Wednesday, as USD/CAD trades in the mid-1.14 range in the North American session. On the release front, there are no major events on Wednesday. In the US, Crude Oil Inventories improved sharply to 1.5 million, easily beating expectations. The only Canadian release on Wednesday is a speech from BOC Senior Deputy Governor Carolyn Wilkins in Ottawa. With little to work with on Wednesday, the markets are keeping an eye on Thursday’s key events, as the US releases retail sales reports and unemployment claims.

US employment data has rebounded in impressive fashion and the good news continued on Tuesday, as JOLTS Job Openings climbed to 4.83 million, up from 4.74 million a month earlier. This beat the estimate of 4.81 million. On Friday, Nonfarm Payrolls shot up to 321 thousand in November, stunning the markets which had expected a rise of 231 thousand. There was also a rise in wages, which should translate into stronger inflation numbers. The unemployment rate held steady at 5.8%, matching the forecast. The excellent Nonfarm Payrolls should help allay concerns about whether the economy can weather an expected rate increase in 2015.

Canadian data started off the week on a mixed note. Building Permits, which tends to show strong fluctuation, tumbled to 0.7%, compared to a 12.7% gain a month earlier. This fell short of the forecast of 2.1%. There was better news from Housing Starts, which posted a strong gain of 196 thousand, up from 184 thousand in the previous release. However, the reading was short of the estimate of 201 thousand.

USD/CAD for Wednesday, December 10, 2014

USD/CAD December 10 at 15:20 GMT

USD/CAD 1.1469 H: 1.1473 L: 1.1436

 

USD/CAD Technical

S3 S2 S1 R1 R2 R3
1.1124 1.1278 1.1414 1.1493 1.1669 1.1723

 

  • USD/CAD was uneventful in the Asian and European sessions. The pair has posted gains in the North American session, putting pressure on resistance at 1.1493.
  • 1.1414 is providing weak support. 1.1278 is stronger.
  • 1.1493 is a weak resistance line. Will the pair break through in the North American session? 1.1669 is stronger.
  • Current range: 1.414 to 1.1493

Further levels in both directions:

  • Below: 1.1414, 1.1278, 1.1124, 1.1004 and 1.0961
  • Above: 1.1493, 1.1669, 1.1723 and 1.1875

 

OANDA’s Open Positions Ratio

USD/CAD ratio is pointing to gains in long positions on Wednesday, reversing the trend we saw a day earlier. This is consistent with the movement of the pair, as the US dollar has posted slight gains. The ratio has a majority of short positions, indicative of trader bias towards USD/CAD reversing direction and heading lower.

USD/CAD Fundamentals

  • 15:30 US Crude Oil Inventories. Estimate -2.6M. Actual 1.5M.
  • 16:15 BOC Senior Deputy Governor Carolyn Wilkins Speaks.
  • 18:01 US 10-year Bond Auction.
  • 19:00 US Federal Budget Balance. Estimate -68.3B.

* Key releases are highlighted in bold

*All release times are GMT

This article is for general information purposes only. It is not investment advice or a solution to buy or sell securities. Opinions are the authors; not necessarily that of OANDA Corporation or any of its affiliates, subsidiaries, officers or directors. Leveraged trading is high risk and not suitable for all. You could lose all of your deposited funds.

Kenny Fisher

Kenny Fisher

Currency Analyst at Market Pulse
Kenny Fisher joined OANDA in 2012 as a Currency Analyst. Kenny writes a daily column about current economic and political developments affecting the major currency pairs, with a focus on fundamental analysis. Kenny began his career in forex at Bendix Foreign Exchange in Toronto, where he worked as a Corporate Account Manager for over seven years.