AUD/USD – Little Change as Business Confidence Slips

AUD/USD is showing little change on Tuesday, as the pair trades at the 0.83 line in the North American session. On the release front, Australian NAB Business Confidence slipped to just one point in November. In the US, , today’s highlight is JOLTS Job Openings. The markets are expecting an improvement in the October release, with an estimate of 4.81M.

The US ended the week with a superb Nonfarm Payrolls report, as the indicator shot up to 321 thousand in November, stunning the markets which had expected a rise of 231 thousand. There was also a rise in wages, which should translate into stronger inflation numbers. The unemployment rate held steady at 5.8%, matching the forecast. The excellent Nonfarm Payrolls should help the Fed remain on course for a rate hike in the first half of 2015.

In Australia, NAB Business Confidence continued to tailspin as the key indicator slipped to 1 point in November. This marks the fourth straight month that the indicator has weakened. This has led to speculation that the RBA may be forced to lower rates in 2015, as the export sector struggles and the employment picture could worsen. Economic activity has slowed, as GDP dropped to 0.3% in Q3, its worst showing in over three years. This means that we can expect the struggling Aussie to remain under pressure.

AUD/USD for Tuesday, December 9, 2014

AUD/USD December 9 at 14:20 GMT

AUD/USD 0.8301 L: 0.8324 H: 0.8260

 

AUD/USD Technical

S3 S2 S1 R1 R2 R3
0.8081 0.8150 0.8240 0.8315 0.8456 0.8550

 

  • AUD/USD lost ground in the Asian session, testing support at 0.8240. The pair recovered in European trade and is putting pressure on resistance at 0.8315. The pair is steady in the North American session.
  • 0.8315 was tested earlier and is a weak resistance line. 0.8456 is stronger.
  • 0.8240 is the next support level.
  • Current range: 0.8240 to 0.8315.

Further levels in both directions:

  • Below: 0.8240, 0.8150, 0.8081 and 0.7904
  • Above: 0.8315, 0.8456, 0.8550, 0.8668 and 0.8763

 

OANDA’s Open Positions Ratio

AUD/USD ratio is pointing to gains in short positions on Tuesday. This is not consistent with the lack of movement we are seeing from the pair. The ratio has a majority of long positions, indicative of trader bias towards AUD/USD moving higher.

AUD/USD Fundamentals

  • 00:30 Australian NAB Business Confidence. Actual 1 point.
  • 12:30 US NFIB Small Business Index. Estimate 96.6 points. Actual 98.1 points.
  • 15:00 US JOLTS Job Openings. Estimate 4.81M.
  • 15:00 US IBD/TIPP Economic Optimism. Estimate 47.2 points.
  • 15:00 US Wholesale Inventories. Estimate 0.1%.

*Key releases are highlighted in bold

*All release times are GMT

This article is for general information purposes only. It is not investment advice or a solution to buy or sell securities. Opinions are the authors; not necessarily that of OANDA Corporation or any of its affiliates, subsidiaries, officers or directors. Leveraged trading is high risk and not suitable for all. You could lose all of your deposited funds.

Kenny Fisher

Kenny Fisher

Currency Analyst at Market Pulse
Kenny Fisher joined OANDA in 2012 as a Currency Analyst. Kenny writes a daily column about current economic and political developments affecting the major currency pairs, with a focus on fundamental analysis. Kenny began his career in forex at Bendix Foreign Exchange in Toronto, where he worked as a Corporate Account Manager for over seven years.