USD/CAD – Modest Losses on Weak US Jobless Data, BOC Statement

The Canadian dollar has posted modest gains on Wednesday, as USD/CAD trades in the mid-1.13 range. On the release front, ADP Nonfarm Employment Change slipped to 208 thousand, well off expectations. ISM Non-Manufacturing PMI looked sharp in November, improving to 59.3 points. In Canada, the BOC made no change to monetary policy, holding rates at 1.00%.

US jobless claims did not impress, as ADP Nonfarm Employment Change fell to 208 thousand, down from 230 thousand in the previous release. This was well short of the estimate of 223 thousand. We’ll get a look at the official Nonfarm Employment Change report on Friday, with the markets expecting a strong reading of 231 thousand. Will the indicator meet or  beat expectations?

As was widely expected, the Bank of Canada held the benchmark interest rate at an even 1.00%, where it has been pegged since September 2010. In a rate statement, the BOC said that while lower oil prices are a serious concern, the economy is in good shape and is showing signs of a broad recovery. The BOC statement gave a boost to the Canadian dollar, which has struggled to stay below the 1.14 line.

USD/CAD for Wednesday, December 3, 2014

USD/CAD December 3 at 16:10 GMT

USD/CAD 1.1354 H: 1.1418 L: 1.1347

USD/CAD Technical

• USD/CAD was uneventful in the Asian and European sessions. The pair has edged lower in the North American session.
• 1.1278 continues to provide strong support.
• On the upside, 1.1414 has some breathing room as the pair trades at lower levels.
• Current range: 1.1278 to 1.1414

Further levels in both directions:

• Below: 1.1278, 1.1124, 1.1004, 1.0961 and 1.0886
• Above: 1.1414, 1.1493, 1.1669 and 1.1723

OANDA’s Open Positions Ratio

USD/CAD ratio is pointing to gains in short positions on Wednesday, continuing the movement we saw a day earlier. This is consistent with the movement of the pair, as the Canadian dollar has posted gains. The ratio currently has a majority of short positions, indicative of trader bias towards the Canadian dollar continuing to post gains.

USD/CAD Fundamentals

• 13:15 US ADP Nonfarm Employment Change. Estimate 223K. Actual 208K.
• 13:30 US Revised Nonfarm Productivity. Estimate 2.3%. Actual 2.3%.
• 13:30 US Revised Unit Labor Costs. Estimate 0.3%. Actual -1.0%.
• 14:45 US Final Services PMI. Estimate 56.3 points.
• 15:00 Canadian BOC Rate Statement.
• 15;00 Canadian BOC Overnight Rate. Estimate 1.00%. Actual 1.00%.
• 15:00 ISM Non-Manufacturing PMI. Estimate 57.5 points. Actual 59.3 points.
• 15:30 US Crude Oil Inventories. Estimate 1.1M.
• 17:30 US FOMC Member Charles Plosser Speaks.
• 19:00 US Beige Book.
• 19:00 US FOMC Member Lael Brainard Speaks.

* Key releases are highlighted in bold

*All release times are GMT

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