USD/CAD – Canadian Dollar Climbs on Strong US Manufacturing PMI

USD/CAD has lost over 100 points on Monday, as the pair trades in the mid-1.13 range in the North American session. In the US, ISM Manufacturing PMI came in at 58.7 points, showing little change from the previous release. There are no Canadian releases on Monday.

In the US, ISM Manufacturing PMI dropped to 58.7 points, close to the previous release of 59.0 points. This easily beat the estimate of 57.9 points. The Canadian dollar jumped on the news, as stronger activity in the US manufacturing sector is good news for Canadian exports to the US. On Friday, Canadian GDP came in at 0.4%, matching the estimate. Unlike the US, Canada releases GDP every month, rather than each quarter. The news was not as positive from RMPI, which showed a decline of -4.9%, a fourth straight decline for the manufacturing inflation index.

Ahead of the Thanksgiving holiday, the US released a batch of data on Wednesday and the numbers were anything but impressive. Unemployment Claims jumped to 313 thousand, its highest level since mid-September. Core Durable Goods Orders declined 0.9%, its third decline in four readings. The estimate stood at 0.5%. New Home Sales fell to a 3-month low, dropping to 458 thousand. This was short of the estimate of 471 thousand. Pending Home Sales was no better, declining by 1.1%, well off the estimate of 0.9%. There was better news from UoM Consumer Sentiment, which posted a fourth straight gain, rising to 88.8 points. However, this was short of the estimate of 90.2 points. Despite the weak numbers, market sentiment towards the US economy remains high, and the US dollar has posted a strong rally against its Canadian counterpart.

USD/CAD for Monday, December 1, 2014

USD/CAD December 1 at 16:35 GMT

USD/CAD 1.1360 H: 1.1459 L: 1.1348

 

USD/CAD Technical

S3 S2 S1 R1 R2 R3
1.1004 1.1124 1.1278 1.1414 1.1493 1.1669

 

  • USD/CAD was uneventful in the Asian session. The pair posted strong losses in European trade and remains under pressure in the North American session.
  • 1.1278 is providing strong support.
  • 1.1414 is the next resistance line.
  • Current range: 1.1278 to 1.1414

Further levels in both directions:

  • Below: 1.1278, 1.1124, 1.1004, 1.0961 and 1.0886
  • Above: 1.1414, 1.1493, 1.1669 and 1.1723

 

OANDA’s Open Positions Ratio

USD/CAD ratio is pointing to gains in short positions on Monday. This is consistent with the movement of the pair, as the Canadian dollar post gains. The ratio is showing a majority of short positions, indicative of trader bias towards the Canadian dollar continuing to move to higher ground.

USD/CAD Fundamentals

  • 15:00 US ISM Manufacturing PMI. Estimate 57.9 points. Actual 58.7 points.
  • 15:00 US Manufacturing Prices. Estimate 52.6 points. Actual 44.5 points.
  • 17:15 US FOMC Member William Dudley Speaks.
  • 18:00 US FOMC Member Stanley Fischer Speaks.

* Key releases are highlighted in bold

*All release times are GMT

This article is for general information purposes only. It is not investment advice or a solution to buy or sell securities. Opinions are the authors; not necessarily that of OANDA Corporation or any of its affiliates, subsidiaries, officers or directors. Leveraged trading is high risk and not suitable for all. You could lose all of your deposited funds.

Kenny Fisher

Kenny Fisher

Currency Analyst at Market Pulse
Kenny Fisher joined OANDA in 2012 as a Currency Analyst. Kenny writes a daily column about current economic and political developments affecting the major currency pairs, with a focus on fundamental analysis. Kenny began his career in forex at Bendix Foreign Exchange in Toronto, where he worked as a Corporate Account Manager for over seven years.