EUR/USD – Stable on Mixed PMIs

EUR/USD had a mostly quiet week, and the lack of activity has continued on Monday. In the European session, the pair is trading in the mid-1.24 range. On the release front, Eurozone Manufacturing PMIs were mixed. Italian Manufacturing PMI remained steady at 49.0 points, the Eurozone reading dipped to 50.1 points, while the Spanish release impressed by climbing to 54.7 points. It’s a quiet day in the US, highlighted by ISM Manufacturing PMI.

German numbers were solid last week, helping the euro hold its own against the US dollar. The week wrapped up with Retail Sales, which bounced back with a strong gain of 1.9%, ahead of the estimate of 1.7%. On Thursday, Unemployment Change came in at 14 thousand, much stronger than the estimate of -1K. As well, German CPI improved to 0.0% in November, matching the forecast. The business sector remains confident in the economy, as Ifo Business Climate climbed higher in November. Strong German numbers are crucial to boosting the ailing Eurozone economy, which remains hampered by weak growth and inflation levels, as well as high unemployment.

Ahead of the Thanksgiving holiday, the US released a batch of data on Wednesday and the numbers left little to cheer about. Unemployment Claims jumped to 313 thousand, its highest level since mid-September. Core Durable Goods Orders declined 0.9%, its third decline in four readings. The estimate stood at 0.5%. New Home Sales fell to a 3-month low, dropping to 458 thousand. This was short of the estimate of 471 thousand. Pending Home Sales was no better, declining by 1.1%, well off the estimate of 0.9%. There was better news from UoM Consumer Sentiment, which posted a fourth straight gain, rising to 88.8 points. However, this was short of the estimate of 90.2 points. Despite the weak numbers, market sentiment towards the US economy remains high.

EUR/USD for Monday, December 1, 2014

EUR/USD December 1st 11:00 GMT

EUR/USD 1.2464 H: 1.2478 L: 1.2420

EUR/USD Technical

S1 S2 S1 R1 R2 R3
1.2143 1.2286 1.2407 1.2518 1.2688 1.2806

 

EUR/USD showed limited movement in the Asian session. The pair has pushed higher in European trade.

  • 1.2518 is an immediate resistance line. 1.2688 is next.
  • 1.2407 is a weak support level. Will the pair break below this line during the day? 1.2286 is stronger.
  • Current range: 1.2407 to 1.2518

Further levels in both directions:

  • Below: 1.2407, 1.2286, 1.2143 and 1.2042
  • Above: 1.2518, 1.2688, 1.2806, 1.2905 and 1.2995

 

OANDA’s Open Positions Ratio

EUR/USD ratio is unchanged on Monday, continuing the trend seen a day earlier. This is not consistent with the pair’s movement, as the euro is showing limited movement. The pair is close to a split between long and short positions, indicative of a lack of trader bias as to what direction EUR/USD will take.

 

EUR/USD Fundamentals

  • 8:15 Spanish Manufacturing PMI. Estimate 53.1 points. Actual 54.7 points.
  • 8:45 Italian Manufacturing PMI. Estimate 49.5 points. Actual 49.0 points.
  • 9:00 Eurozone Final Manufacturing PMI. Estimate 50.4 points. Actual 50.1 points.
  • 14:45 US Final Manufacturing PMI. Estimate 55.0 points.
  • 15:00 US ISM Manufacturing PMI. Estimate 57.9 points.
  • 15:00 US Manufacturing Prices. Estimate 52.6 points.
  • 17:15 US FOMC Member William Dudley Speaks.
  • 18:00 US FOMC Member Stanley Fischer Speaks.

* Key releases are highlighted in bold

*All release times are GMT

This article is for general information purposes only. It is not investment advice or a solution to buy or sell securities. Opinions are the authors; not necessarily that of OANDA Corporation or any of its affiliates, subsidiaries, officers or directors. Leveraged trading is high risk and not suitable for all. You could lose all of your deposited funds.

Kenny Fisher

Kenny Fisher

Currency Analyst at Market Pulse
Kenny Fisher joined OANDA in 2012 as a Currency Analyst. Kenny writes a daily column about current economic and political developments affecting the major currency pairs, with a focus on fundamental analysis. Kenny began his career in forex at Bendix Foreign Exchange in Toronto, where he worked as a Corporate Account Manager for over seven years.