Asia share markets are headed for a slightly better year after 2014’s low returns, but bigger gains will come from seeking reform beneficiaries in China and India, Goldman Sachs said.
“2014 has been another year with an unexciting headline return,” with the MSCI Asia Pacific ex-Japan index (MXAPJ) up only around 3 percent after a selloff in September wiped out earlier gains, Goldman said in a report Monday. But after the recent “concentrated” outflows, overall positioning in the region appears light, it said.
In addition, many Asia ex-Japan active funds are up only around an average 2.4 percent so far this year, underperforming the MXAPJ, it said.
“Performance pressure so far and a desire to amplify returns could drive broader re-risking from active funds,” Goldman said.
But even so, Goldman only expects the MXAPJ will rise to 520 by the end of 2015, compared with around 477 currently, for a single-digit return, amid conservative earnings growth forecasts and expectations valuations are already full.