USD/CAD – Little Movement as Markets Eye FOMC Minutes

USD/CAD has not showed much activity on Wednesday, as the pair trades in the mid-1.13 range. On the release front, US housing numbers were a mix, as Building Permits climbed to 1.08 million, while Housing Starts edged lower to 1.01 million. Later in the day, the FOMC releases the minutes of its last policy meeting, and the markets will be looking for hints of the timing of an interest rate hike by the Federal Reserve.  There are no Canadian releases on Wednesday.

In the US, housing data was a mix on Wednesday. Building Permits was unexpectedly strong, climbing to 1.08M. This beat the estimate of 1.04M and marked a six-month high. Housing Starts could not keep pace, edging lower to 1.01M. The estimate stood at 1.03M.

US inflation numbers have been persistently weak, but the news was good on Tuesday, as PPI beat expectations with a modest gain of 0.2%. This marked a 4-month high and beat the estimate of -0.1%. Core PPI, which excludes the most volatile items counted in PPI, posted a gain of 0.4%, above the forecast of 0.2%. This was the index’s best showing since April. We’ll get a look at consumer inflation data on Thursday.

Canadian Foreign Securities Purchases looked weak in September, with a reading of just C$4.37 billion, compared to C$10.28 billion a month earlier. This was well short of the estimate of C$11.32 billion. The Canadian dollar posted strong gains on Friday, taking advantage of an excellent Manufacturing Sales report. The key indicator posted a gain of 2.1%, easily exceeding the forecast of 1.3%.

USD/CAD for Wednesday, November 19, 2014

USD/CAD November 19 at 16:10 GMT

USD/CAD 1.1336 H: 1.1357 L: 1.1319

USD/CAD Technical

• USD/CAD has showed little movement during the day.
• On the downside, 1.1278 is an immediate support level.
• 1.1414 remains a strong resistance line.
• Current range: 1.1278 to 1.1414

Further levels in both directions:

• Below: 1.1278, 1.1124, 1.1004 and 1.0961
• Above: 1.1414, 1.1493, 1.1669, 1.1723 and 1.1875

OANDA’s Open Positions Ratio

USD/CAD ratio is pointing to gains in short positions on Wednesday, reversing the direction we saw a day earlier. This is consistent with the movement of the pair, as the US dollar has posted slight gains. The ratio remains close to an event split between long and short positions, indicative of a lack of trader bias as to what direction USD/CAD will take.

USD/CAD Fundamentals

• 13:30 US Building Permits. Estimate 1.04M. Actual 1.08M.
• 13:30 US Housing Starts. Estimate 1.03M. Actual 1.01M.
• 15:30 US Crude Oil Inventories. Estimate -0.7M. Actual 2.6M.
• 19:00 US FOMC Meeting Minutes.

* Key releases are highlighted in bold

*All release times are GMT

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