It’s been a quiet week for EUR/USD and this lack of activity continues on Thursday, as the pair trades in the mid-1.24 range in the European session. On the release front, French CPI came in at a flat 0.0%, while German CPI slipped to -0.3%. In the US, we’ll get a look at key employment data, with the release of Unemployment Claims and JOLTS Job Openings. In Washington, Fed Chair Janet Yellen will speak at a conference hosted by the ECB and Federal Reserve.
Eurozone inflation levels remain at rock-bottom levels, and there was more bad news from Germany and France, the Eurozone’s two largest economies. German Final CPI declined 0.3%, its worst showing since January. This matched the forecast, so the markets were braced for a weak reading. In France, CPI improved to 0.0%, edging above the estimate of -0.1%. The index has managed just one gain since March, as the French economy continues to struggle. On Wednesday, German Wholesale Price Index declined for the second time in three readings, coming in at -0.6%. This was well short of the estimate of +0.2%, and was the index’s steepest decline since November 2013.
We’ll get a look at the first major US release of the week on Thursday, with the release of Unemployment Claims. Last week’s reading of 278 thousand beat the estimate, and the four-week averages, which are more reliable indicators, remain at multi-year lows. The upcoming estimate stands at 282 thousand. The US will also release JOLT Job Openings, an important indicator. The markets are expecting a slight softening in the September reading, with a forecast of 4.81M.
EUR/USD for Thursday, November 13, 2014
EUR/USD November 13 10:20 GMT
EUR/USD 1.2469 H: 1.2472 L: 1.2428
- EUR/USD edged upwards in the Asian session. The pair is steady in European trade.
- On the downside, 1.2407 remains a weak support line. 1.2286 is next. This line has remained intact since August 2012.
- 1.2518 is an immediate resistance line.
- Current range: 1.2407 to 1.2518
Further levels in both directions:
- Below: 1.2407, 1.2286, 1.2143, 1.2042 and 1.1875
- Above: 1.2518, 1.2688, 1.2806 and 1.2905
OANDA’s Open Positions Ratio
EUR/USD ratio is pointing to gains in long positions on Thursday, reversing the direction seen a day earlier. This is consistent with the pair’s movement, as the euro has posted small gains. The ratio is almost an even split between long and short positions, indicative of a lack of trader bias towards what direction to expect from EUR/USD.
- 7:00 German Final CPI. Estimate -0.3%. Actual -0.3%.
- 7:45 French CPI. Estimate -0.1%. Actual 0.0%.
- 9:00 ECB Monthly Bulletin.
- 13:30 US Unemployment Claims. Estimate 282K.
- 15:00 US JOLTS Job Openings. Estimate 4.81M.
- 16:00 US Crude Oil Inventories. Estimate 0.7M.
- 17:30 US FOMC Member Charles Plosser Speaks.
- 17:45 Federal Reserve Chair Janet Yellen Speaks.
- 18:01 US 30-year Bond Auction.
- 19:00 US Federal Budget Balance. Estimate -111.5B.
- 20:30 US FOMC Member Narayana Kocherlakota Speaks.
*Key releases are highlighted in bold.
*All release times are GMT