AUD/USD has posted modest gains on Tuesday, after a slow start to the week. Early in the North American session, the pair is trading in the mid-88 range. The Australian dollar took advantage as US Core Durable Goods Orders posted a decline of 0.2%. Later in the day, the US releases CB Consumer Confidence. The markets are expecting a strong reading, so we could see the US dollar recover some of today’s earlier losses. There are no Australian releases on Tuesday.
In the US, durable goods looked dismal. Core Durable Goods Orders dropped 0.2%, its second decline in three months. This was well short of the estimate of 0.5%. Durable Goods Orders followed suit with a decline of -1.3%. This was a second straight decline, and missed the estimate of 0.4%. Later in the day, the US releases CB Consumer Confidence, with the markets anticipating a strong September reading.
The Federal Reserve will be at center stage on Wednesday, as a two-day meeting wraps up with the release of a policy statement. The Fed is expected to wind up QE, and if policymakers delay this move, the dollar will likely take a hit against its major rivals. The markets will also be looking for hints regarding the timing of a rate hike, which is expected sometime in 2015. Traders should treat this release as a market-mover which could have a significant impact on the currency markets.
AUD/USD for Tuesday, October 28, 2014
AUD/USD October 28 at 14:10 GMT
AUD/USD 0.8849 H: 0.8882 L: 0.8789
- AUD/USD has been climbing slowly throughout the day. The pair broke past resistance at 0.8820 late in the Asian session and continued to gain ground in European trade. AUD/USD is stable early in the North American session.
- On the upside, 0.8820 is under strong pressure. 0.8953 is stronger.
- 0.8820 was breached and has reverted to a support role. It is a weak line and could see further action during the day. 0.8668 is stronger.
- Current range: 0.8820 to 0.8953.
Further levels in both directions:
- Below:0.8220, 0.8763, 0.8668, 0.8550 and 0.8456
- Above: 0.8953, 0.9020, 0.9119 and 0.9217
OANDA’s Open Positions Ratio
AUD/USD ratio is pointing to gains in short positions on Tuesday, continuing the trend seen a day earlier. This is not consistent with what we’re seeing from the pair, as the Australian dollar has posted gains. The ratio has a majority of long positions, indicative of trader bias towards AUD/USD continuing to move to higher ground.
- 12:30 US Core Durable Goods Orders. Estimate +0.5%. Actual -0.2%.
- 12:30 US Durable Goods Orders. Estimate +0.4%. Actual -1.3%.
- 13:00 S&P/CS Composite-20 HPI. Estimate 5.7%. Actual 5.6%.
- 14:00 US Richmond Manufacturing Index. Estimate 11 points.
- 14:00 US CB Consumer Confidence. Estimate 87.4 points.
* Key releases are highlighted in bold
*All release times are GMT
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