The pound is calm on Monday, as GBP/USD trades in the mid-1.61 range. On the release front, it’s a very quiet start to the week, with no releases out of the UK. In the US, today’s sole release is a speech from FOMC member Jeremy Powell. On Sunday, British Rightmove HPI posted a sharp gain of 2.6%, its best performance in five months.
US releases wrapped up the week on a high note, as UoM Consumer Sentiment climbed to 86.4 points, its highest reading since July 2007. The markets had expected a reading of 84.3 points. This indicates that the US consumer remains optimistic about the economy and is not overly concerned about warnings of a global slowdown. On the housing front, Building Permits and Housing Starts met expectations. Strong US employment numbers continue to drive the US recovery, as US job claims dropped to 264 thousand, marking a 14-year low. The estimate stood at 286 thousand.
On Wednesday, the pound got a boost thanks to strong British numbers. In the UK, Average Earnings Index edged up to 0.7%, matching the estimate. This was a four-month high for the indicator, which is an important indicator of consumer inflation. On the employment front, Claimant Count Change continues to drop, although the reading of -18.6 thousand was well off the forecast of -34.2 thousand. The unemployment rate dropped from 6.2% to 6.0%, its lowest level since November 2008. With both the UK and US continuing to reel off solid job data, the markets are expecting some tightening in monetary stance from both the Federal Reserve and the BoE sometime in 2015.
GBP/USD for Monday, October 20, 2014
GBP/USD October 20 at 14:40 GMT
GBP/USD 1.6135 H: 1.6151 L: 1.6080
- GBP/USD edged lower in the Asian session but recovered early in European trade and continued to move upwards, briefly breaking above resistance at 1.6141. The pair is steady in the North American session.
- The round number of 1.6000 continues to provide strong support.
- On the upside, 1.6141 is fluid and could see further action during the day. 1.6263 is stronger.
- Current range: 1.6000 to 1.6141
Further levels in both directions:
- Below: 1.6000, 1.5864, 1.5717, 1.5644 and 1.5460
- Above 1.6141, 1.6263, 1.6382 and 1.6484
OANDA’s Open Positions Ratio
GBP/USD ratio is almost unchanged on Monday. This is not consistent with the pair’s movement, as the pound has posted slight gains. The ratio has a slight majority of long positions, indicative of trader bias towards the pound continuing to move higher.
- 14:00 US FOMC Member Jerome Powell Speaks.
* Key releases are in highlighted bold.
*All release times are GMT
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