EUR/USD – Steady After Sharp US Jobs, Manufacturing Data

EUR/USD is showing little movement on Friday, as the pair trades slightly below the 1.28 line in the European session. On Thursday, US Unemployment Claims dropped to 264 thousand, while the Philly Fed Manufacturing Index and Industrial Production both beat estimates. There is just one Eurozone release on Friday, with Deutsche Bundesbank President Jens Weidmann speaking at an event in Riga, Latvia. In the US, it’s another busy day, with the release of Building Permits and the UoM Consumer Sentiment. As well, Federal Reserve Chair Janet Yellen will deliver remarks at an event in Boston.

Earlier in the week, US retail sales and inflation numbers sagged, and the euro took full advantage, gaining over 100 points against the dollar. Core Retail Sales dipped 0.2%, its first decline since April 2013. It was a similar story with Core Retail Sales, which posted a decline of 0.3%, its first loss since January. This points to a decrease in consumer spending, a key component of economic growth. Meanwhile, PPI fell by 0.1%, after a reading of 0.0% a month earlier. All three events missed their estimates.

There was better news on Thursday, as US Unemployment Claims dropped to 264 thousand, marking a 14 -year low. The estimate stood at 286 thousand. Manufacturing numbers were a mix, as Industrial Production gained 1.0%, its best showing since November. The Philly Fed Manufacturing Index dipped to 20.7 points, but this beat the estimate of 19.9 points.


EUR/USD for Friday, October 17, 2014

EUR/USD October 17 at 8:20 GMT

EUR/USD 1.2785 H: 1.2815 L: 1.2781

EUR/USD Technical

S1 S2 S1 R1 R2 R3
1.2407 1.2518 1.2688 1.2806 1.2905 1.2984


  • EUR/USD has shown little movement in the Asian and European sessions, trading close to the 1.28 line.
  • 1.2688 is providing strong support.
  • On the upside, 1.2806 is fluid and was breached earlier in the day. 1.2905 is stronger.
  • Current range: 1.2688 to 1.2806

Further levels in both directions:

  • Below: 1.2688, 1.2518, 1.2407, 1.2286 and 1.2144
  • Above: 1.2806, 1.2905, 1.2984 and 1.3104


OANDA’s Open Positions Ratio

EUR/USD ratio is not showing much movement on Friday. This is consistent with the lack of movement we’re seeing from the pair. The ratio is almost evenly split between long and short positions, indicative of a lack of trader bias as to what direction the pair will take.


EUR/USD Fundamentals

  • 9:00 Deutsche Bundesbank President Jens Weidmann Speaks.
  • 12:30 US Building Permits. Estimate 1.04M.
  • 12:30 US Fed Chair Janet Yellen Speaks.
  • 12:30 US Housing Starts. Estimate 1.02M.
  • 13:55 US Preliminary UoM Consumer Sentiment. Estimate 84.3 points.
  • 13:55 US Preliminary UoM Inflation Expectations.

*All release times are GMT

This article is for general information purposes only. It is not investment advice or a solution to buy or sell securities. Opinions are the authors; not necessarily that of OANDA Corporation or any of its affiliates, subsidiaries, officers or directors. Leveraged trading is high risk and not suitable for all. You could lose all of your deposited funds.

Kenny Fisher

Kenny Fisher

Market Analyst at OANDA
A highly experienced financial market analyst with a focus on fundamental analysis, Kenneth Fisher’s daily commentary covers a broad range of markets including forex, equities and commodities. His work has been published in several major online financial publications including, Seeking Alpha and FXStreet. Based in Israel, Kenny has been a MarketPulse contributor since 2012.
Kenny Fisher

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