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USD/CAD – Canadian Dollar Slide Continues Ahead of US Numbers

The Canadian dollar continues to lose ground on Wednesday, as USD/CAD trades in the mid-1.13 range. The pair has climbed about 170 points since Tuesday, and is trading at its highest level since July 2009. In the US, we’ll get a look at US releases after a quiet start to the week. There are three key events on the calendar – Retail Sales, Core Retail Sales and PPI. There are no Canadian releases on Tuesday.

On Friday, Canadian job figures were unexpectedly strong. Employment Change posted an outstanding gain of 74.1 thousand, crushing the estimate of 18.7 thousand. This was the strongest gain we’ve seen since May 2013. The unemployment rate dipped to 6.8%, its lowest level in almost six years. Despite the strong numbers, the Canadian dollar has been unable to stem the US dollar rally.

The US dollar has enjoyed a superb run against the Canadian dollar, gaining about 400 points in the past month. USD/CAD continues to roll despite last week’s FOMC minutes, which were unexpectedly dovish. In the minutes, the Fed poured some cold water on rising expectations of a rate hike, as a number of policymakers said that the Federal Reserve should take a more data-dependent approach regarding a rate hike. The Fed also voiced concern about the rising strength of the US dollar which could weigh on the recovery. On the weekend, FOMC member Stanley Fischer said that the Fed could slow tightening if global growth is weaker than expected. Strong US numbers have raised expectations about a rate hike, but the Fed appears to be taking a cautious approach towards the timing of a rate hike. Still, with QE set to wind up by the end of the month, rising speculation about higher rates bodes well for the US dollar.

USD/CAD for Wednesday, October 15, 2014

USD/CAD October 15 at 11:45 GMT

USD/CAD 1.1381 H: 1.1381 L: 1.1313


USD/CAD Technical

S3 S2 S1 R1 R2 R3
1.1004 1.1124 1.1278 1.1414 1.1493 1.1669


Further levels in both directions:


OANDA’s Open Positions Ratio

USD/CAD ratio is pointing to gains in short positions on Wednesday. This is not consistent with the pair’s movement, as the US dollar continues to climb. The ratio has a majority of short positions, indicating trader bias towards the Canadian dollar reversing directions and moving higher.


USD/CAD Fundamentals

* Key releases are in highlighted bold.

*All release times are GMT

This article is for general information purposes only. It is not investment advice or a solution to buy or sell securities. Opinions are the authors; not necessarily that of OANDA Corporation or any of its affiliates, subsidiaries, officers or directors. Leveraged trading is high risk and not suitable for all. You could lose all of your deposited funds.

Kenny Fisher

Kenny Fisher [4]

Market Analyst at OANDA [5]
A highly experienced financial market analyst with a focus on fundamental analysis, Kenneth Fisher’s daily commentary covers a broad range of markets including forex, equities and commodities. His work has been published in several major online financial publications including Investing.com, Seeking Alpha and FXStreet. Based in Israel, Kenny has been a MarketPulse contributor since 2012.
Kenny Fisher

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