EUR/USD is calm on Wednesday, as the pair trades in the mid-1.26 line in the European session. The euro has had a good week, adding about 150 points. On the release front, it’s a quiet day, with no Eurozone releases. In the US, today’s highlight is the minutes of the FOMC’s most recent policy meeting. Traders should treat this event as a market-mover.
It’s been a rough week for German numbers, as the Eurozone’s locomotive is having trouble. Industrial Production declined by 4.0% last month, its sharpest drop since January 2009. This was well off the estimate of -1.4%. German Factory Orders had an awful September, coming in at -5.7%. This was the indicator’s third decline in four releases. German Trade Balance will be released on Thursday, with the markets expecting a drop in the trade surplus. If German data does not show improvement, the euro will have a tough task holding its own against the strong US dollar.
US job numbers continue to impress. On Tuesday, JOLTS Job Openings climbed to 4.84 million, up from 4.67 million a month earlier. The indicator is on a strong upward trend, indicative of the US employment sector. Last week, Nonfarm Employment change rebounded in September, climbing to 248 thousand. This exceeded expectations of 216 thousand. The unemployment rate dipped to 5.9%, the first time it’s been below the 6% threshold in over six years. With QE slated to end later this month, the focus will shift to the timetable for an interest rake hike. Strong employment numbers such as these could put pressure on the Fed to make an interest rate move sooner rather than later in 2015, and increased speculation about a rate move will likely boost the dollar even further.
EUR/USD for Wednesday, October 8, 2014
EUR/USD October 8 at 9:45 GMT
EUR/USD 1.2559 H: 1.2583 L: 1.2523
- EUR/USD has been marked by choppy trading in the Asian and European sessions.
- 1.2518 is an immediate support line. 1.2407 is stronger.
- 1.2688 is a strong resistance line.
- Current range: 1.2518 to 1.2688
Further levels in both directions:
- Below: 1.2518, 1.2407, 1.2286 and 1.2144
- Above: 1.2688, 1.2806, 1.2905, 1.2984 and 1.3104
OANDA’s Open Positions Ratio
EUR/USD ratio is unchanged on Wednesday. This is consistent with the lack of movement we’re seeing from the pair. The ratio is almost evenly split, indicative of a lack of trader bias as to which direction the pair will take.
- 14:30 US Crude Oil Inventories. Estimate 2.1M.
- 17:01 US 10-year Bond Auction.
- 18:00 US FOMC Meeting Minutes.
* Key releases are highlighted in bold
*All release times are GMT