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UK Gas Prices Rise As Warm Weather Forecasted

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U.K. winter natural gas prices fell for a seventh day, the longest declining streak in almost three months, amid forecasts for warmer-than-usual weather and reduced risks of supply disruptions via Ukraine.

Gas for the six months from October on Britain’s National Balancing Point declined as much as 1 percent to its lowest since Aug. 4 on the ICE Futures Europe exchange in London. NATO said Russia embarked on a “significant” withdrawal of its forces from Ukraine, adding to signs that a truce is taking hold between the government in Kiev and separatist groups.

The winter contract has lost 5.6 percent since June 16, the day Russia halted gas supplies to Ukraine in a debt and price dispute that echoed similar conflicts that reduced flows to Europe in 2006 and 2009. Ukraine, which transports 15 percent of Europe’s gas demand, will seek “some volume of gas” from Russia’s OAO Gazprom at a provisional price until April, EU Energy Commissioner Guenther Oettinger said yesterday before three-way talks in Berlin on Sept. 26.

“Reports indicate a warm start to the winter, pushing down the front of the curve,” analysts at Gazprom Marketing & Trading Retail Ltd. wrote in a research note today. “Meetings are set to take place on Friday between the EU, Russia and Ukraine representatives, as the risk premium that was previously built into the curve over potential supply issues lessens.”

via Bloomberg

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Alfonso Esparza

Alfonso Esparza

Senior Currency Analyst at Market Pulse
Alfonso Esparza specializes in macro forex strategies for North American and major currency pairs. Upon joining OANDA in 2007, Alfonso Esparza established the MarketPulseFX blog and he has since written extensively about central banks and global economic and political trends. Alfonso has also worked as a professional currency trader focused on North America and emerging markets. He has been published by The MarketWatch, Reuters, the Wall Street Journal and The Globe and Mail, and he also appears regularly as a guest commentator on networks including Bloomberg and BNN. He holds a finance degree from the Monterrey Institute of Technology and Higher Education (ITESM) and an MBA with a specialization on financial engineering and marketing from the University of Toronto.
Alfonso Esparza

@alfonso_forex

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