Germany posted a record trade surplus of 22.2 billion euros in July, suggesting Europe’s largest economy could bounce back strongly in the third quarter after suffering a surprise contraction in the second.
Seasonally-adjusted data from the Federal Statistics Office showed exports surged 4.7 percent to 98.2 billion euros, the most goods and services Germany has ever sent abroad in a single month. It was the sharpest rise in exports since May 2012, easily outstripping expectations for a modest 0.5 percent increase.
Coming on the heels of July data showing industrial output and orders jumping, the trade figures suggest the German economy will be able to skirt a technical recession in the third quarter after shrinking by 0.2 percent in the April to June period.
“It looks like demand from U.S. and U.K. is more than offsetting any weakness from German exports to Russia so these fears that German exports would go down the drain were clearly exaggerated,” said Carsten Brzeski, senior economist at ING.
He expects the German economy to grow by around 0.3 percent in the third quarter.
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