China’s economy is in danger of missing its growth target as risk balloons in the country’s all-important real estate sector, according to a CNNMoney survey of economists.
Gross domestic product is forecast to have expanded by 7.4% in the second quarter, compared to the same period last year, according to the median estimate of 12 economists. That figure matches GDP growth in the first three months of the year.
The economists expect full-year expansion to slow to 7.3% — below the government’s official 7.5% target. Economic growth is forecast to slide further to 7% in 2015.
The National Bureau of Statistics will announce official second quarter GDP figures on July 16.
China averaged growth of around 10% a year in the last three decades, pushing it up the list of biggest economies and boosting household wealth. But now, the pace of economic expansion is languishing — China recorded GDP growth of 7.7% in the last two years, versus 9.3% in 2011 and 10.5% in 2010.
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