USD/CAD: Steady as US GDP Takes a Beating

USD/CAD has edged lower on Wednesday, as the pair trades in the low-1.07 range. On the release front, US GDP took a tumble in Q1, while manufacturing data softened in May. There are no Canadian releases until Friday.

The US dollar is under pressure following a dismal Final GDP reading in Q1. The markets were braced for a decline of 1.8%, but the indicator shocked with a much sharper drop of 2.9%. There was more bad news to follow, as Core Durable Goods Orders declined by 0.1%, its first decline in five months. The estimate stood at 0.3%. Durable Goods Orders looked even worse, coming in at -1.0%, shy of the estimate of -0.1%. Traders should be prepared for the US dollar’s major rivals to gain ground after such a weak GDP release.

US data looked sharp on Tuesday, with strong gains in consumer confidence and housing numbers. CB Consumer Confidence improved to 85.2 points, beating the estimate of 83.6 points. It was the strongest level since December 2007. New Home Sales had a superb reading, jumping to 504 thousand, crushing the estimate of 442 thousand. It was the key indicator’s best showing since August 2008. If upcoming indicators continue to point upwards, we could see the US dollar gain strength.

The Canadian dollar continues to trade at its highest levels since January. The currency received a boost from strong releases last week, highlighted by positive inflation and retail sales numbers last Friday. Core CPI and CPI both posted gains of 0..5%, beating their estimates of 0.2%. Core Retail Sales improved to 0.7%, surpassing the forecast of 0.4%. Finally, Retail Sales jumped 1.1% last month, crushing the estimate of 0.4%.


USD/CAD for Wednesday, June 25, 2014

USD/CAD June 25 at 14:40 GMT

USD/CAD 1.0723 H: 1.0752 L: 1.0719


USD/CAD Technical

S3 S2 S1 R1 R2 R3
1.0572 1.0678 1.0706 1.0775 1.0852 1.0906


  • The pair was flat in the Asian session and edged lower late in European trading. The pair is unchanged early in the North American session.
  • 1.0775 is the next resistance line. 1.0852 is stronger.
  • 1.0706 remains an immediate support level. This is followed by 1.0678, which was last tested in early January.
  • Current range: 1.0706 to 1.0775

Further levels in both directions:

  • Below: 1.0706, 1.0678, 1.0572 and 1.0414
  • Above: 1.0775, 1.0852, 1.0906 and 1.10


OANDA’s Open Positions Ratio

USD/CAD ratio is unchanged in Wednesday trade, continuing the trend we saw a day earlier. This is not consistent with the pair’s movement, as USD/CAD has edged lower. The ratio has a majority of long positions, indicative of trader bias towards the US dollar breaking out and moving higher.


USD/CAD Fundamentals

  • 12:30 US Core Durable Goods Orders. Estimate +0.3%. Actual -0.1%.
  • 12:30 US Final GDP. Estimate -1.8%. Actual -2.9%.
  • 12:30 US Durable Goods Orders. Estimate -0.1%. Actual -1.0%.
  • 12:30 US Final GDP Price Index. Estimate 1.3%. Actual 1.3%.
  • 13:45 US Flash Services PMI. Estimate 58.6 points. Actual 61.2 points.
  • 14:30 US Crude Oil Inventories. Estimate -1.2M. Actual +1.7M.

*Key releases are highlighted in bold

*All release times are GMT

This article is for general information purposes only. It is not investment advice or a solution to buy or sell securities. Opinions are the authors; not necessarily that of OANDA Corporation or any of its affiliates, subsidiaries, officers or directors. Leveraged trading is high risk and not suitable for all. You could lose all of your deposited funds.

Kenny Fisher

Kenny Fisher

Market Analyst at OANDA
A highly experienced financial market analyst with a focus on fundamental analysis, Kenneth Fisher’s daily commentary covers a broad range of markets including forex, equities and commodities. His work has been published in several major online financial publications including, Seeking Alpha and FXStreet. Based in Israel, Kenny has been a MarketPulse contributor since 2012.