Brazil Elections Polls Show Dissatisfaction But Still Point to Reelection

Brazil’s economy has stumbled badly, but some analysts say upcoming elections and fresh polls showing rising dissatisfaction with the government could herald a change.

“The consensus is still that (President) Dilma Rousseff will win reelection” when the country votes on October 5, Tony Volpon, strategist for Latin America at Nomura, told CNBC. “But the government favorability ratings have been dropping like a stone. The latest poll numbers put that at 31 percent,” he added.

Volpon believes the current government’s policies have done “real damage” to some sectors of the economy, citing in particular the negative effects on the energy sector of refusing to allow gasoline and electricity prices to rise in an effort to control inflation.

Economic growth in Brazil has slowed in recent years, with gross domestic product (GDP) expanding just 2.3 percent last year, compared with 7.5 percent in 2010. The International Monetary Fund (IMF) forecasts growth of just 1.8 percent for 2014. Brazil needs annual GDP growth of an average 4.2 percent through 2030 to lift half of its vulnerable population into the middle class, economists at NBER recently estimated.

via CNBC

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Alfonso Esparza

Alfonso Esparza

Senior Currency Analyst at Market Pulse
Alfonso Esparza specializes in macro forex strategies for North American and major currency pairs. Upon joining OANDA in 2007, Alfonso Esparza established the MarketPulseFX blog and he has since written extensively about central banks and global economic and political trends. Alfonso has also worked as a professional currency trader focused on North America and emerging markets. He has been published by The MarketWatch, Reuters, the Wall Street Journal and The Globe and Mail, and he also appears regularly as a guest commentator on networks including Bloomberg and BNN. He holds a finance degree from the Monterrey Institute of Technology and Higher Education (ITESM) and an MBA with a specialization on financial engineering and marketing from the University of Toronto.
Alfonso Esparza