AUD/USD – Higher As Australian Data Mixed

AUD/USD has posted gains on Thursday and is trading close to the 0.93 line early in the North American session. On the release front, it’s been a busy day in both Australia and the US. In Australia, HIA New Home Sales posted sharp gains in April. However, Private Capital Expenditures, the key event of the week, failed to keep pace, posted a second straight decline. In the US, it’s also been a mix, as Unemployment Claims dropped sharply, while Preliminary GDP posted a rare decline. We’ll get a look at Pending Home Sales later on Thursday.

Thursday’s key releases out of the US have been a mix. Unemployment Claims bounced back in convincing fashion, as the indicator dropped to 300 thousand, well below the estimate of 321 thousand. Preliminary GDP came in at  -1.0% in Q1, lower than the estimate of -0.6%. This is a worrisome figure, as it marked the first contraction in Preliminary GDP since Q2 of 2009. The markets will be hoping for better news from Pending Home Sales.

In Australia, HIA New Home Sales climbing 2.9% in April. This marked the strongest gain we’ve seen in 2014. The news was not nearly as good from Private Capital Expenditure, the key event of the week. The indicator dropped by 4.2%, its second straight sharp decline. This was well off the estimate of -1.6%. The weak numbers point to weakness in spending by the private sector, which is a key component of economic growth.

The US consumer continues to be optimistic, which is good news for the US recovery. On Tuesday, CB Consumer Confidence continued to look strong as the key indicator improved to 83.0 points in April, which was within expectations. This was the third straight reading above the 80-point level. Meanwhile, the Standard & Poor’s/Case-Shiller house price index posted a strong gain of 12.4%, surpassing the estimate of 11.9%.

AUD/USD for Thursday, May 29, 2014

AUD/USD May 29 at 14:15 GMT

AUD/USD 0.9286 H: 0.9313 L: 0.9213

AUD/USD Technical

• 0.9229 is providing support. There is followed by 0.9119.
• 0.9361 is the next line of resistance.

Further levels in both directions:

• Below: 0.9229, 0.9119, 0.9000, 0.8893 and 0.8757
• Above: 0.9361, 0.9446 and 0.9617 and 0.9757

OANDA’s Open Positions Ratio

AUD/USD ratio is pointing to gains in short positions in Thursday trading. This is not consistent with the movement from the pair, as the Australian dollar has posted gains. The ratio has a strong majority of long positions, indicative of trader bias towards the Australian dollar continuing to move upwards.

AUD/USD has recovered from Wednesday’s losses and is flirting with the 0.93 line. The pair has edged higher in the North session.

AUD/USD Fundamentals

• 1:00 Australian HIA New Home Sales. Actual 2.9%.
• 1:30 Australian Private Capital Expenditure. Estimate -1.6%. Actual -4.2%.
• 12:30 US Preliminary GDP. Estimate -0.6%. Actual -1.0%.
• 12:30 US Unemployment Claims. Estimate 321K. Actual 300K.
• 12:30 US Preliminary GDP Price Index. Estimate 1.3%. Actual 1.3%.
• 14:00 US Pending Home Sales. Estimate 1.1%.
• 14:30 US Natural Gas Storage. Estimate 110B.
• 15:00 US Crude Oil Inventories. Estimate -0.1M.

*Key releases are highlighted in bold

*All release times are GMT

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