USD/CAD – Steady As US Employment, Manufacturing Data Shines

The Canadian dollar is showing little movement in Thursday trading, as USD/CAD trades slightly below the 1.09 line in the North American session. In the US, Unemployment Claims excelled, dropping to a seven-year low. The Philly Fed Manufacturing Index easily beat the estimate. In Canada, Manufacturing Sales slipped in April but managed to beat the estimate. Later in the day, BOC Deputy Governor Lawrence Schembri speaks at an event in Quebec City.

In the US, Thursday’s employment and manufacturing numbers were strong. Unemployment Claims were outstanding, dropping to 297 thousand last week. This easily beat the estimate of 321 thousand and was the lowest level we’ve seen since May 2007.  On the manufacturing front, the Philly Fed Manufacturing Index dipped to 15.4 points, but this was well above the estimate of 13.9 points. As well, Empire State Manufacturing Index climbed to 19.0 points, crushing the estimate of 5.5. This was the indicator’s best showing in two years.

Low inflation levels have been a persistent problem in the US, and Fed chair Yellen highlighted this issue when speaking before Congress last week. Inflation levels are nowhere near the Fed’s target of 2.0%, and weak inflation is a sign of an underperforming US economy. Core CPI posted a weak gain of 0.2% April, edging above the estimate of 0.1%.

US Retail Sales and Core Retail Sales are key gauges of consumer spending, and are carefully tracked by the markets. Both indicators were weak in April. Core Retail Sales dropped to 0.0%, well off the estimate of 0.6%. Retail Sales followed suit, with a paltry gain of just 0.1%, compared to an estimate of 0.5%. The weak numbers could weigh on the US dollar, which has been struggling of late.


USD/CAD for Thursday, May 15, 2014

Forex Rate Graph 21/1/13

USD/CAD May 15 at 15:15 GMT

USD/CAD 1.0883 H: 1.0889 L: 1.0851


USD/CAD Technical

S3 S2 S1 R1 R2 R3
1.0706 1.0775 1.0852 1.0906 1.10 1.1094


  • USD/CAD is showing little movement on Thursday, continuing the pattern we’ve seen throughout the week.
  • 1.0852 is providing weak support, and was tested earlier in the day. Will the pair break through this level? There is stronger support at 1.0775.
  • On the upside, 1.0906 is a weak resistance line. This is followed by the key line of 1.10.
  • Current range: 1.0852 to 1.0906

Further levels in both directions:

  • Below: 1.0852, 1.0775, 1.0706, 1.0678
  • Above: 1.0906, 1.10, 1.1094, 1.1177 and 1.1319


OANDA’s Open Positions Ratio

USD/CAD ratio is almost unchanged in Thursday trading. This is consistent with what we are seeing from the pair, which has not shown much activity. The ratio has a majority of long positions, indicative of trader bias in favor of the US dollar moving to higher ground.

USD/CAD continues to trade close to the 1.09 line. In the North American session, the pair is steady.


USD/CAD Fundamentals

  • 12:30 Canadian Manufacturing Sales. Estimate 0.2%. Actual 0.4%.
  • 12:30 US Core CPI. Estimate 0.1%. Actual 0.2%.
  • 12:30 US Unemployment Claims. Estimate 321K. Actual 297K.
  • 12:30 US CPI. Estimate 0.3%. Actual 0.3%.
  • 12:30 US Empire State Manufacturing Index. Estimate 5.5 points. Actual 19 points.
  • 13:00 US TIC Long-Term Purchases. Estimate 32.3B. Actual 4.0B.
  • 13:15 US Capacity Utilization Rate. Estimate 79.2%. Actual 78.6%.
  • 13:15 US Industrial Production. Estimate 0.4%. Actual -0.6%.
  • 14:00 US Philly Fed Manufacturing Index. Estimate 13.9 points. Actual 15.4 points.
  • 14:00 US Mortgage Delinquencies. Actual 6.11%.
  • 14:00 US NAHB Housing Market Index. Estimate 49 points. Actual 45. points.
  • 14:30 US Natural Gas Storage. Estimate 99B. Actual 105B.
  • 16:30 BOC Deputy Governor Lawrence Schembri Speaks.
  • 23:00 US Federal Reserve Chair Janet Yellen Speaks.

*Key releases are highlighted in bold

*All release times are GMT

This article is for general information purposes only. It is not investment advice or a solution to buy or sell securities. Opinions are the authors; not necessarily that of OANDA Corporation or any of its affiliates, subsidiaries, officers or directors. Leveraged trading is high risk and not suitable for all. You could lose all of your deposited funds.

Kenny Fisher

Kenny Fisher

Market Analyst at OANDA
A highly experienced financial market analyst with a focus on fundamental analysis, Kenneth Fisher’s daily commentary covers a broad range of markets including forex, equities and commodities. His work has been published in several major online financial publications including, Seeking Alpha and FXStreet. Based in Israel, Kenny has been a MarketPulse contributor since 2012.
Kenny Fisher

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