Week In FX Europe – After NFP, ECB, Russia and the Dollar In Focus

Friday’s NFP surprise (+288k and +6.3% UE) has managed to temporarily nick the EUR bull, but not enough to break the pair from the broad range (€1.3775-1.3880). Geopolitical concerns aside, next week’s rate decision at the ECB (May 8th) are now in focus. Market consensus expects Euro monetary policy to remain steady as recovery unfolds.

Earlier this morning the final manufacturing PMI reading for the region came in at 54.1, slightly down from the flash reading of 54.2 and better than the 53.7 seen in March. Collectively the PMI’s carry a mixed message for Draghi and company. Activity continues to pick up, showing expansion outside Germany, with France, Italy and Spain seeing their final print above 50 (expansion territory). A concern to many was the fact that manufactures cut their prices for a second consecutive month – a worrying development for Draghi and company. The issue for the ECB is not a slow Euro recovery, but the persistence of “low” inflation that despite this months bounce (below expectations and above the March print – 0.7%) remains a priority issue for Euro policy makers.

Because of benign Euro inflation situation the market has only attached a small probability to the ECB actually doing anything to monetary policy next week – the fixed income traders are more confident in pricing in an easing move in June instead. A rate cut or negative deposit rates are something that the market expects then with QE on the cards for later in the year.

Obviously, any additional monetary easing by a G7 central bank will create market volatility – creating risks and opportunities for investors. Until then, the forex market is beholding to the varying trading ranges intermittingly been broken by geopolitical issues. After Friday’s NFP headline the dollar found only brief favor with investors – both US treasury yields and the dollar fell on news reports that Russia has called for an emergency meeting of the UN security council.

• Spanish Yields Fall Below 3 Percent – MarketPulse
• UK Manufacturing Rises in April – MarketPulse
• Bank of England Issues Housing Boom Warning – MarketPulse
• UK Construction Grows in April Trending Prices – MarketPulse
• Ukraine Still Attracting Oil Investment Despite Turmoil – MarketPulse
• Pro-Russian Rebels Clash With Ukraine Forces – MarketPulse
• Eurozone Unemployment Falls in March – MarketPulse
• Draghi’s ABS Plan Met With Skepticism – MarketPulse
• Ukraine gets $17 Billion Bailout – MarketPulse
• GBP Rises After Strong UK PMI – MarketPulse
• Russia Signs Deal With Austria To Circumvent Ukraine – MarketPulse
• European Inflation Rises Yet Still Below Expectations – MarketPulse
• European Courts Reject UK Challenge to the Transaction Tax – MarketPulse
• Spanish GDP Rises 0.4 Percent – MarketPulse
• Banks Need to Survive 7% GDP Drops Say New Stress Test Rules – MarketPulse
• UK Regulator Prepares Housing Stress Test – MarketPulse
• Fitch Upgrades Spain Credit Rating – MarketPulse
• Bank Lobby Group Says EU Exit Would Hurt London Financial Standing – MarketPulse
• UK Housing Rise Expands to Outside London Area – MarketPulse
• S&P Downgraded Russia To BBB- – MarketPulse
• Slovakia and Ukraine Reinstate Gas Pipeline – MarketPulse

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