USD/JPY – Dollar Firm Ahead of Japanese Manufacturing Numbers

USD/JPY has edged higher on Tuesday, as the pair trades in the mid-102 range in the European session. In economic releases, today’s US  highlight is CB Consumer Confidence. The markets are expecting a strong gain for the March release. In Japan, the markets are keeping an eye on Preliminary Industrial Production, which will be released later on Tuesday.

US housing numbers were a major disappointment last week, but it was a different story on Monday, as Pending Home Sales soared in March. The key indicator jumped 3.4%, easily beating the estimate of 1.0%. This marked its biggest monthly gain since last May. The indicator has posted mostly declines in recent readings, so the strong gain was welcome news. Meanwhile, US consumers appear to be content, as the UoM Consumer Sentiment jumped to 84.1 points in March, beating the estimate of 83.2. It marked the indicator’s highest level since June. If the optimism continues and translates into increased consumer spending, this should bode well for the US economy.

With Japan hiking the national sales tax from 5% to 8% on April 1, consumers were expected to spend and spend more in March, before prices jumped. Analysts weren’t disappointed, as Retail Sales jumped 11%, its best showing since March 1997. This was in line with expectations, as the estimate stood at 10.9%. With inflation indicators pointing higher, the government has shifted attention to country’s huge deficit of over $10 billion. The sales tax is expected raise tax revenue and help lower the deficit, but there are concerns that the economy could take a downturn if spending slows down in the private sector.

US consumers appear to be content, as the UoM Consumer Sentiment jumped to 84.1 points in March, beating the estimate of 83.2. It marked the indicator’s highest level since June. If this optimism continues and translates into increased consumer spending, this should bode well for the US economy.


USD/JPY for Tuesday, April 29, 2014

Forex Rate Graph 21/1/13

USD/JPY April 29 at 15:50 GMT

USD/JPY 102.67 H: 102.78 L: 102.47


USD/JPY Technical

S3 S2 S1 R1 R2 R3
100.00 101.19 102.53 103.07 104.17 105.70


  • USD/JPY has posted modest gains in Tuesday trade.
  • 103.07 is a weak resistance line. This is followed by 104.17.
  • 102.53 has switched to a support role as the dollar has moved to higher ground. 101.19 is providing stronger support.
  • Current range: 102.53 to 103.07

Further levels in both directions:

  • Below: 102.53, 101.19, 100.00, 99.57 and 98.97.
  • Above: 103.07, 104.17, 105.70 and 106.85.


OANDA’s Open Positions Ratio

USD/JPY ratio is pointing to gains in short positions, reversing the direction we saw a day earlier. This is not consistent with the pair’s movement, as the dollar has posted gains. The ratio is made up of a substantial majority of long positions, indicating trader bias towards the dollar continuing to move upwards.

USD/JPY continues to post gains on Tuesday. The pair is steady in the European session.


USD/JPY Fundamentals

  • 13:00 US S&P/CS Composite-20 HPI. Estimate 12.9%. Actual 12.9%.
  • 14:00 US CB Consumer Confidence. Estimate 82.9 points. Actual 82.3 points.
  • 23:15 Japanese Manufacturing PMI.
  • 23:50 Japanese Preliminary Industrial Production. Estimate 0.6%.

*Key releases are highlighted in bold

*All release times are GMT


This article is for general information purposes only. It is not investment advice or a solution to buy or sell securities. Opinions are the authors; not necessarily that of OANDA Corporation or any of its affiliates, subsidiaries, officers or directors. Leveraged trading is high risk and not suitable for all. You could lose all of your deposited funds.

Kenny Fisher

Kenny Fisher

Market Analyst at OANDA
A highly experienced financial market analyst with a focus on fundamental analysis, Kenneth Fisher’s daily commentary covers a broad range of markets including forex, equities and commodities. His work has been published in several major online financial publications including, Seeking Alpha and FXStreet. Based in Israel, Kenny has been a MarketPulse contributor since 2012.
Kenny Fisher

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