Gold will decline 22 percent through 2014 to end the year at $1,025 an ounce as the U.S. Federal Reserve scales back stimulus and inflation remains subdued, according to Westpac Banking Corp.
Bullion is going to underperform other commodities as the U.S. central bank reduces the bond purchases, Justin Smirk, the second most-accurate gold forecaster tracked by Bloomberg in the past two years, told reporters in Singapore. Prices will drop to $1,175 by the end of June and $1,090 at the end of September, said Smirk, senior economist at the Sydney-based bank.
While gold ended a 12-year bull run in 2013 as the Fed prepared to reduce monthly bond-buying, prices have rebounded this year after Russia’s annexation of Crimea and mixed U.S. economic data boosted demand. Goldman Sachs Group Inc. this week reaffirmed a forecast for lower prices over 2014, and Morgan Stanley predicted four quarters of losses for bullion.
“We’re not in a high-risk environment anymore,” said Smirk, referring to the global financial crisis. “Underlying demand for gold comes under pressure when the prices get high.”
Bullion for immediate delivery traded 0.6 percent lower at $1,320.31 at 12:52 p.m. in Singapore, according to Bloomberg generic pricing. It last traded below $1,025 in October 2009.
via Bloomberg [1]
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