Goldman Sees 10% Correction In US Equities

Goldman Sachs Group Inc.’s David Kostin has some good news, and some bad news.

First, the bad news. There’s a good chance the U.S. stock market will see a 10 percent drop sometime during the next 12 months. Well, as far as precision goes, “good chance” is not good enough for a quant like Kostin, so he gives an exact probability: 67 percent odds of a 10 percent retreat from a peak in the next 12 months.

Though quant work can be complicated, his rationale is actually quite simple — the market has gone way too long without a so-called correction, or a drop of at least 10 percent from a peak. The biggest declines from highs this year and last year were about 6 percent, and it’s been 22 months since the Standard & Poor’s 500 Index (SPX) saw a 10 percent drop. Mix in a little fancy math, and Kostin ends up with 67 percent odds we’ll see a correction in the next 12 months.


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Mingze Wu

Mingze Wu

Currency Analyst at Market Pulse
Based in Singapore, Mingze Wu focuses on trading strategies and technical and fundamental analysis of major currency pairs. He has extensive trading experience across different asset classes and is well-versed in global market fundamentals. In addition to contributing articles to MarketPulseFX, Mingze centers on forex and macro-economic trends impacting the Asia Pacific region.
Mingze Wu