USD/JPY – Modest Gains Ahead of US Unemployment Claims

USD/JPY has edged higher in Thursday trading, as the pair has pushed into 102 territory. In the US, there are two key events, Unemployment Claims and Pending Home Sales. As well, we’ll get a look at US Final GDP. There are a host of Japanese releases later in the day, including Tokyo CPI, Household Spending and Retail Sales.

US readings continue to paint a mixed picture, thanks to releases which have been pointing in both directions. Core Durable Goods Orders posted a weak gain of 0.2%, shy of the estimate of 0.3%. Durable Goods Orders looked sharper, jumping 2.2% last month. This broke a mini-streak of two straight declines, and easily surpassed the estimate of 1.1%. On Tuesday, New Home Sales missed the forecast but CB Consumer Confidence climbed to a six-year high.

Ukraine’s economy is in shambles as a result of the four-month political crisis. Prime Minister Arseniy Yatsenyuk acknowledged that the country is on the edge of bankruptcy, and GDP could drop by 3% this year. However, help is on the way. The IMF is set to sign a two-year loan of up to $18 billion, and the EU has offered a package of EUR 11 billion. Ukraine has already received two bailouts from the IMF since 2008, and will have to implement budget cuts and other measures in order to receive the new package from the IMF.


USD/JPY for Thursday, March 27, 2014

Forex Rate Graph 21/1/13

USD/JPY March 27 at 12:30 GMT

USD/JPY 102.33 H: 102.43 L: 101.72


USD/JPY Technical

S3 S2 S1 R1 R2 R3
99.57 100.00 101.19 102.53 103.30 104.17


  • USD/JPY has moved upwards on Thursday. The pair pushed above the 102 level during the Asian session.
  • 102.53 remains a weak resistance line and could be tested during the day. This is followed by strong resistance at 103.30.
  • 101.19 is providing support. The next support line is the key level of 100.00, which has held firm since last November.
  • Current range: 101.19 to 102.53


Further levels in both directions:

  • Below: 101.19, 100.00, 99.57 and 98.65
  • Above: 102.53, 103.30, 104.17, 105.70, 106.85


OANDA’s Open Positions Ratio

USD/JPY ratio is pointing towards short positions on Thursday. This is not consistent with the pair’s movement, as the dollar has posted gains. Long positions make up a majority of the open positions in the ratio, indicating trader bias towards the dollar continuing to move higher.

USD/JPY has erased Wednesday’s losses and is trading above the 102 line. The yen remains under pressure in the European session.


USD/JPY Fundamentals

  • 12:30 US Unemployment Claims. Estimate 326K.
  • 12:30 US FOMC Member Sandra Pianalto Speaks.
  • 12:30 US Final GDP. Estimate 2.7%.
  • 12:30 US Final GDP Price Index. Estimate 1.6%.
  • 14:00 US Pending Home Sales. Estimate 0.1%.
  • 14:30 US Natural Gas Storage. Estimate -49B.
  • 23:30 Japanese Household Spending. Estimate 0.2%.
  • 23:30 Japanese Tokyo Core CPI. Estimate 0.9%.
  • 23:30 Japanese National Core CPI. Estimate 1.3%.
  • 23:30 Japanese Unemployment Rate. Estimate 3.7%.
  • 23:50 Japanese Retail Sales. Estimate 3.4%.

*Key releases are highlighted in bold

*All release times are GMT


This article is for general information purposes only. It is not investment advice or a solution to buy or sell securities. Opinions are the authors; not necessarily that of OANDA Corporation or any of its affiliates, subsidiaries, officers or directors. Leveraged trading is high risk and not suitable for all. You could lose all of your deposited funds.



Kenny Fisher

Kenny Fisher

Market Analyst at OANDA
A highly experienced financial market analyst with a focus on fundamental analysis, Kenneth Fisher’s daily commentary covers a broad range of markets including forex, equities and commodities. His work has been published in several major online financial publications including, Seeking Alpha and FXStreet. Based in Israel, Kenny has been a MarketPulse contributor since 2012.
Kenny Fisher

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