USD/JPY – US Dollar Firm Above 102

The US dollar is steady on Friday, as the USD/JPY remains above the 102 line. In Japan, the markets are closed on Friday for a holiday, but BOJ Governor will deliver remarks at the London School of Economics on Saturday. It’s a quiet day in the US, with no data releases. FOMC member Richard Fisher will discuss forward guidance at the London School of Economics.

The Federal Reserve wrapped up its policy meeting on Wednesday, the first meeting headed by Janet Yellen. The decision to trim QE by another $10 billion was widely expected, but her comments at the follow-up press conference gave the dollar a big boost against its major rivals. Yellen said that the Fed was on track to wind up QE in the fall, and could start to raise interest rates six months later. This is a more aggressive approach towards higher rates than the markets had expected, and the dollar responded with sharp gains against the yen.

The Ukrainian crisis is deepening. Russian President Vladimir Putin signed a deal on Friday which formally annexed Crimea to Russia, while Western countries are scrambling to respond to Russia’s lightning takeover of the Ukrainian region. The EU is meeting on Friday and is expected to announce further sanctions to punish Russia. Meanwhile, Ukraine says it will order its troops in Crimea to withdraw to the mainland, in order to de-escalate the extremely tense situation. The crisis has set off the worst confrontation between Russia and the West in over twenty years.

USD/JPY for Friday, March 21, 2014

USD/JPY March 21 at 12:30 GMT

USD/JPY 102.22 H: 102.40 L: 102.02

USD/JPY Technical

• The dollar remains firm in Friday trading. USD/JPY edged lower in late in the Asian session but has rebounded in European trading.
• 102.53 continues to provide resistance. It is a weak line and could face pressure if the US dollar resumes moving higher. This is followed by strong resistance at 103.30.
• 101.19 is providing support. The next support line is the key level of 100.00, which has held firm since last November.
• Current range: 101.19 to 102.53

Further levels in both directions:

• Below: 101.19, 100.00, 99.57 and 98.65
• Above: 102.53, 103.30, 104.17, 105.70, 106.85

OANDA’s Open Positions Ratio

USD/JPY ratio continues to pointing to gains in short positions on Friday. This is consistent with the pair’s movement, as the dollar has edged lower. Long positions make up a majority of the open positions in the ratio, indicating trader bias towards the dollar moving higher.

The yen is trading quietly on Friday. USD/JPY has edged higher in the European session, and we could see an uneventful North American session, with no data being released out of the US.

USD/JPY Fundamentals

• 17:45 FOMC Member Richard Fisher Speaks.
• 20:30 FOMC Member Narayana Kocherlakota Speaks.
• 22:30 FOMC Member Jeremy Stein Speaks.

*Key releases are highlighted in bold

*All release times are GMT

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